{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec75001a-1fcf-44fb-8614-9d465754bfbc", "symbol": "QYLD", "name": "GLOBAL X NASDAQ 100 COVERED CALL ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.076, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.861, "architecture_energy": 21.538, "architecture_maturity": 74.651, "architecture_confidence": 79.78, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.75, "rotation_up": 34.73, "upward_expansion": 58.59, "deceleration": 85.21, "rotation_down": 25.1, "downward_expansion": 17.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.857457, 17.868289, 17.799248, 17.63003 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.14, "trend_reference": 17.418813, "distance_from_trend": 0.041403, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.948995, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.683328, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068625, "excess_performance": -0.118828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041403, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02578, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21346, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012111, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056833, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024188, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068625, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.680943, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17827453, "relative_activity": 0.611333, "balance": 1.680943, "dry_up": 0.763374, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027685, "annualized_volatility": 0.112867, "from_high_reference": -0.008532, "from_low_reference": 0.214225 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.418813, "fair_value_reference": 14.948995, "structural_low": 16.294322, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.013426, "positive_rate": 0.725, "directional_follow_through": 0.725, "median_excess_return": 0.001277, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.041033, "worst_return": -0.073749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.025473, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.019302, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.098217, "worst_return": -0.050804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.081309, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.018688, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.115079, "worst_return": -0.134698, "sufficient": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 17.56, "volume": 21557868, "typical_volume": 34279433.05, "trend": 17.350496, "fair_value": 14.880276, "relative_strength": -3.730759, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.390857, "energy": 23.719935, "activity_lines": [ 17.777484, 17.831385, 17.725949, 17.55627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.735, "volume": 25829446, "typical_volume": 32218870.75, "trend": 17.381233, "fair_value": 14.91302, "relative_strength": -3.204853, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.996271, "energy": 18.408623, "activity_lines": [ 17.751728, 17.81333, 17.745219, 17.581077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.14, "volume": 17827453, "typical_volume": 29161631.3, "trend": 17.418813, "fair_value": 14.948995, "relative_strength": -5.683328, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.860706, "energy": 21.537873, "activity_lines": [ 17.857457, 17.868289, 17.799248, 17.63003 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }