{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec760d18-78d7-4cde-bb56-21d3e56fa38c", "symbol": "JULW", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY BUFFER20 JUL ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.876, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.309, "architecture_energy": 73.715, "architecture_maturity": 77.01, "architecture_confidence": 64.85, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 63.1, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.58, "rotation_down": 26.85, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.026533, 40.906765, 40.699525, 40.375961 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.4613, "trend_reference": 39.99082, "distance_from_trend": 0.03677, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.39957, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.171237, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.155326, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.053256, "excess_performance": -0.072369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03677, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016727, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.171237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000842, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061553, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002389, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053256, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.769954, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38832, "relative_activity": 0.15888, "balance": 0.769954, "dry_up": 0.72952, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005956, "annualized_volatility": 0.04658, "from_high_reference": -0.001414, "from_low_reference": 0.102401 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.99082, "fair_value_reference": 35.39957, "structural_low": 38.255, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.006918, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.004372, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.035082, "worst_return": -0.035682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.015386, "positive_rate": 0.8125, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.006754, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.082283, "worst_return": -0.017573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.048103, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.026252, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.084953, "worst_return": -0.019078, "sufficient": true 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-4.106106, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.25854, "energy": 63.827536, "activity_lines": [ 40.75718, 40.733998, 40.509315, 40.207913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.92, "volume": 125685, "typical_volume": 244862.35, "trend": 39.918443, "fair_value": 35.325267, "relative_strength": -4.327354, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.84067, "energy": 67.07411, "activity_lines": [ 40.806807, 40.774536, 40.583418, 40.276422 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.4613, "volume": 38832, "typical_volume": 244410.7, "trend": 39.99082, "fair_value": 35.39957, "relative_strength": -6.155326, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.308979, "energy": 73.714566, "activity_lines": [ 41.026533, 40.906765, 40.699525, 40.375961 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }