{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec7648f6-3d9b-4b83-86da-a09aa1795de8", "symbol": "FVC", "name": "Filter Vision Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.553, "architecture_energy": 12.947, "architecture_maturity": 79.402, "architecture_confidence": 57.785, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.65, "rotation_up": 25.51, "upward_expansion": 23.78, "deceleration": 52.72, "rotation_down": 22.95, "downward_expansion": 48.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.326667, 0.324364, 0.323143, 0.33372 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.33, "trend_reference": 0.359333, "distance_from_trend": -0.081633, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.574452, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.42554, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.950754, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.266667, "excess_performance": -0.458992, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081633, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111294, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.42554, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062508, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.299508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058313, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.141041, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7188600, "relative_activity": 1.592708, "balance": 2.141041, "dry_up": 0.564347, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062937, "annualized_volatility": 0.525665, "from_high_reference": -0.431034, "from_low_reference": 0.178571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.359333, "fair_value_reference": 0.574452, "structural_low": 0.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.015866, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.012048, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.162162, "worst_return": -0.224138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.035493, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.057325, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.112676, "worst_return": -0.327586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.198676, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.186641, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": -0.093023, "worst_return": -0.385955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.311569, "energy": 31.798619, "activity_lines": [ 0.320667, 0.315636, 0.324286, 0.345247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.33, "volume": 1767100, "typical_volume": 10051425.0, "trend": 0.375, "fair_value": 0.585722, "relative_strength": -32.9365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.359258, "energy": 22.302344, "activity_lines": [ 0.324667, 0.318727, 0.323857, 0.342022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.33, "volume": 949700, "typical_volume": 6346700.0, "trend": 0.369667, "fair_value": 0.581841, "relative_strength": -32.466851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.80094, "energy": 19.86438, "activity_lines": [ 0.327333, 0.321636, 0.323952, 0.339118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.32, "volume": 283200, "typical_volume": 5366185.0, "trend": 0.364, "fair_value": 0.578146, "relative_strength": -33.134451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.069782, "energy": 19.295915, "activity_lines": [ 0.325333, 0.322364, 0.323048, 0.335914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.33, "volume": 7188600, "typical_volume": 4513445.0, "trend": 0.359333, "fair_value": 0.574452, "relative_strength": -29.950754, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.552989, "energy": 12.94717, "activity_lines": [ 0.326667, 0.324364, 0.323143, 0.33372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }