{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec7bb1a7-10bc-4e3d-85e2-20e993075766", "symbol": "NDM", "name": "Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.071, "architecture_energy": 49.783, "architecture_maturity": 7.524, "architecture_confidence": 77.677, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.64, "rotation_up": 14.68, "upward_expansion": 25.2, "deceleration": 50.15, "rotation_down": 65.1, "downward_expansion": 52.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.228, 2.386545, 2.564429, 2.513677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.38, "trend_reference": 2.489667, "distance_from_trend": -0.044049, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.292756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.841027, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.742359, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.108614, "excess_performance": -0.229036, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044049, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027854, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.841027, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.801194, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.32263, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108614, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.623636, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3556200, "relative_activity": 0.793461, "balance": 0.623636, "dry_up": 0.954955, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154816, "annualized_volatility": 1.088798, "from_high_reference": -0.431981, "from_low_reference": 1.163636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.489667, "fair_value_reference": 1.292756, "structural_low": 1.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.094733, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.06731, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.342541, "worst_return": -0.029412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.569061, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.495433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.685484, "worst_return": 0.235294, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.453036, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.329159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.470588, "worst_return": 0.435484, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.735294, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.524339, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.735294, "worst_return": 1.735294, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009434, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030534, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.225352, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.244048, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.358974, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.035088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005618, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.60221, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", 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"relative_strength": -9.318062, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.634908, "energy": 24.392945, "activity_lines": [ 2.508, 2.654, 2.662238, 2.581548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.22, "volume": 3770600, "typical_volume": 4899405.0, "trend": 2.535667, "fair_value": 1.269551, "relative_strength": -13.53375, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.069309, "energy": 35.753152, "activity_lines": [ 2.378, 2.558182, 2.634476, 2.559333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.96, "volume": 5439100, "typical_volume": 4891525.0, "trend": 2.512, "fair_value": 1.279744, "relative_strength": -23.682326, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.980691, "energy": 57.679633, "activity_lines": [ 2.209333, 2.426, 2.57981, 2.522194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.38, "volume": 3556200, "typical_volume": 4481885.0, "trend": 2.489667, "fair_value": 1.292756, "relative_strength": -10.742359, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.07109, "energy": 49.782908, "activity_lines": [ 2.228, 2.386545, 2.564429, 2.513677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }