{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec8070d9-d30b-4871-b326-7a244e45c113", "symbol": "PMV", "name": "Premier Investments Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 48.081, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.195, "architecture_energy": 19.742, "architecture_maturity": 47.259, "architecture_confidence": 73.448, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.47, "rotation_up": 21.57, "upward_expansion": 56.85, "deceleration": 93.6, "rotation_down": 28.46, "downward_expansion": 13.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.468512, 13.698895, 13.344916, 13.191947 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13.5, "trend_reference": 13.140677, "distance_from_trend": 0.027344, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.013756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.386747, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.475258, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.027378, "excess_performance": -0.091083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027344, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034086, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.386747, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064864, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144753, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114165, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027378, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.937825, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2334178, "relative_activity": 1.718081, "balance": 0.937825, "dry_up": 1.809311, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061058, "annualized_volatility": 0.294481, "from_high_reference": -0.390768, "from_low_reference": 0.230629 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.140677, "fair_value_reference": 22.013756, "structural_low": 10.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.042557, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.024061, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.131959, "worst_return": -0.09639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.10205, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.089719, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.203022, "worst_return": -0.197841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.124208, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.105702, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.298873, "worst_return": -0.347711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.139831, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.048208, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048815, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01056, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.138605, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Extended", 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"energy": 65.132419, "activity_lines": [ 14.159335, 13.496546, 13.049239, 13.066108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.849291, "volume": 1201753, "typical_volume": 1212724.75, "trend": 13.17951, "fair_value": 22.173381, "relative_strength": -10.977879, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.511834, "energy": 65.148853, "activity_lines": [ 14.114032, 13.649581, 13.137523, 13.10863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.926661, "volume": 1296199, "typical_volume": 1217870.7, "trend": 13.185065, "fair_value": 22.141777, "relative_strength": -9.724149, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.918953, "energy": 48.723057, "activity_lines": [ 14.031232, 13.788332, 13.234228, 13.156833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.288356, "volume": 1528567, "typical_volume": 1238508.9, "trend": 13.159344, "fair_value": 22.097998, "relative_strength": -12.868603, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.680258, "energy": 27.921261, "activity_lines": [ 13.74922, 13.782361, 13.267824, 13.163497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.24, "volume": 4673547, "typical_volume": 1389168.85, "trend": 13.139677, "fair_value": 22.054782, "relative_strength": -14.329325, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.064117, "energy": 19.519614, "activity_lines": [ 13.518533, 13.730901, 13.29587, 13.168701 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.5, "volume": 2334178, "typical_volume": 1358596.0, "trend": 13.140677, "fair_value": 22.013756, "relative_strength": -14.475258, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.195302, "energy": 19.741996, "activity_lines": [ 13.468512, 13.698895, 13.344916, 13.191947 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }