{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec81f79f-a899-49f4-9708-52c90a59a888", "symbol": "LRN", "name": "Stride Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 93.157, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.447, "architecture_energy": 36.409, "architecture_maturity": 16.473, "architecture_confidence": 60.34, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.53, "rotation_up": 22.04, "upward_expansion": 17.01, "deceleration": 43.74, "rotation_down": 56.14, "downward_expansion": 54.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.999333, 86.263636, 88.69981, 88.704258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 82.51, "trend_reference": 87.397, "distance_from_trend": -0.055917, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 91.693846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100158, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.664947, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.060572, "excess_performance": -0.186196, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055917, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094615, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100158, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104484, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246649, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054596, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060572, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.193343, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8936673, "relative_activity": 2.193725, "balance": 1.193343, "dry_up": 1.443594, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112026, "annualized_volatility": 0.370214, "from_high_reference": -0.517965, "from_low_reference": 0.361221 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.397, "fair_value_reference": 91.693846, "structural_low": 77.56, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.006561, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.005741, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.241995, "worst_return": -0.526052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.099412, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.121477, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.239165, "worst_return": -0.59985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.11811, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.064969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.590836, "worst_return": -0.470067, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090876, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059557, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.276161, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166904, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", 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88.597333, 90.066182, 90.687286, 89.319849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 86.88, "volume": 2771604, "typical_volume": 3731353.1, "trend": 86.462667, "fair_value": 91.155769, "relative_strength": -19.536833, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.653455, "energy": 6.740486, "activity_lines": [ 88.312, 89.395273, 90.366429, 89.391226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.29, "volume": 7211260, "typical_volume": 3915376.8, "trend": 86.985333, "fair_value": 91.418718, "relative_strength": -25.438354, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.523094, "energy": 26.904017, "activity_lines": [ 85.558, 87.551818, 89.417714, 88.992989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.51, "volume": 8936673, "typical_volume": 4073742.9, "trend": 87.397, "fair_value": 91.693846, "relative_strength": -24.664947, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.446971, "energy": 36.408783, "activity_lines": [ 83.999333, 86.263636, 88.69981, 88.704258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }