{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ec8436ff-c712-4597-8ea4-af7ac350a712",
    "symbol": "XDWF",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Financials UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 80.867,
    "architecture_energy": 92.067,
    "architecture_maturity": 33.452,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.118,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 0.35,
        "rotation_up": 84.77,
        "upward_expansion": 99.55,
        "deceleration": 39.19,
        "rotation_down": 10.37,
        "downward_expansion": 21.55
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        42.165333,
        41.466364,
        40.013571,
        39.024538
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 42.529999,
    "trend_reference": 38.036167,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.118146,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 31.536859,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.348581,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -1.590134,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.133529,
    "excess_performance": -0.037363,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.118146,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038166,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.348581,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.117318,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.015901,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.070633,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.133529,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 15.013806,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 80061,
      "relative_activity": 2.756034,
      "balance": 15.013806,
      "dry_up": 1.452218,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018503,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.126296,
      "from_high_reference": -0.011045,
      "from_low_reference": 0.254202
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 38.036167,
      "fair_value_reference": 31.536859,
      "structural_low": 34.349998,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 38,
        "median_return": 0.020813,
        "positive_rate": 0.605263,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.605263,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001789,
        "regime_survival": 0.789474,
        "best_return": 0.068241,
        "worst_return": -0.129123,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.035371,
        "positive_rate": 0.769231,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.769231,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00485,
        "regime_survival": 0.615385,
        "best_return": 0.12316,
        "worst_return": -0.097638,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.096624,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00764,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.048513,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.068735,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
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        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": 0.013861,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.0021,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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          36.43429
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 37.279999,
        "volume": 18882,
        "typical_volume": 46982.0,
        "trend": 36.314833,
        "fair_value": 29.918686,
        "relative_strength": -6.07069,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.204135,
        "energy": 36.218361,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.055666,
          36.41409,
          36.478928,
          36.500322
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 36.965,
        "volume": 24023,
        "typical_volume": 46947.5,
        "trend": 36.376,
        "fair_value": 30.022019,
        "relative_strength": -8.653464,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.164713,
        "energy": 37.064689,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.102332,
          36.563181,
          36.502428,
          36.542268
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 37.139999,
        "volume": 21826,
        "typical_volume": 46841.25,
        "trend": 36.463333,
        "fair_value": 30.123686,
        "relative_strength": -7.708587,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.929787,
        "energy": 43.435447,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.122999,
          36.73909,
          36.54388,
          36.591559
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 37.990002,
        "volume": 34435,
        "typical_volume": 46475.8,
        "trend": 36.558333,
        "fair_value": 30.231602,
        "relative_strength": -6.186323,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.512781,
        "energy": 49.956762,
        "activity_lines": [
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          36.668,
          36.690054
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 37.700001,
        "volume": 19774,
        "typical_volume": 44812.15,
        "trend": 36.637833,
        "fair_value": 30.334936,
        "relative_strength": -7.69343,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.212001,
        "energy": 46.163124,
        "activity_lines": [
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          37.26,
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          36.76371
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 38.099998,
        "volume": 3731,
        "typical_volume": 43787.4,
        "trend": 36.734,
        "fair_value": 30.440256,
        "relative_strength": -6.283854,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.316291,
        "energy": 62.515451,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.767667,
          37.487727,
          36.896024,
          36.858043
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 38.84,
        "volume": 4480,
        "typical_volume": 42431.15,
        "trend": 36.840166,
        "fair_value": 30.54984,
        "relative_strength": -7.260135,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.480488,
        "energy": 76.678734,
        "activity_lines": [
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          36.993914
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 39.740002,
        "volume": 4966,
        "typical_volume": 41371.0,
        "trend": 36.998666,
        "fair_value": 30.668461,
        "relative_strength": -7.339805,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.088402,
        "energy": 87.230442,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.783334,
          38.189909,
          37.381309,
          37.181
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 39.880001,
        "volume": 2824,
        "typical_volume": 38390.55,
        "trend": 37.124166,
        "fair_value": 30.784263,
        "relative_strength": -3.983149,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.758641,
        "energy": 92.263105,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.252001,
          38.561728,
          37.661691,
          37.366892
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 40.875,
        "volume": 9021,
        "typical_volume": 36921.25,
        "trend": 37.276833,
        "fair_value": 30.907917,
        "relative_strength": -4.302504,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 91.068775,
        "energy": 95.999587,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.926334,
          39.075637,
          38.025595,
          37.608882
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 41.290001,
        "volume": 46856,
        "typical_volume": 36621.6,
        "trend": 37.4295,
        "fair_value": 31.033429,
        "relative_strength": -2.8125,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.779976,
        "energy": 95.599832,
        "activity_lines": [
          40.527334,
          39.591819,
          38.407262,
          37.867796
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 41.759998,
        "volume": 27706,
        "typical_volume": 35893.3,
        "trend": 37.580333,
        "fair_value": 31.157243,
        "relative_strength": -0.214905,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.416347,
        "energy": 95.670771,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.072333,
          40.120546,
          38.813119,
          38.147183
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 42.080002,
        "volume": 16854,
        "typical_volume": 26454.55,
        "trend": 37.733,
        "fair_value": 31.28109,
        "relative_strength": 0.788941,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.199373,
        "energy": 95.007614,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.529334,
          40.620273,
          39.22531,
          38.437484
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 42.195,
        "volume": 44123,
        "typical_volume": 27121.0,
        "trend": 37.892667,
        "fair_value": 31.407564,
        "relative_strength": 0.438476,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.936008,
        "energy": 92.64099,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.868667,
          41.051091,
          39.620072,
          38.725355
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 42.529999,
        "volume": 80061,
        "typical_volume": 29049.35,
        "trend": 38.036167,
        "fair_value": 31.536859,
        "relative_strength": -1.590134,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.866864,
        "energy": 92.067354,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.165333,
          41.466364,
          40.013571,
          39.024538
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}