{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec84e91d-030c-4887-8c86-780a35eb6d88", "symbol": "JPNEUA", "name": "UBS Core MSCI Japan UCITS ETF JPY dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.726, "architecture_energy": 38.404, "architecture_maturity": 60.843, "architecture_confidence": 78.024, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.3, "rotation_up": 40.56, "upward_expansion": 66.8, "deceleration": 85.46, "rotation_down": 27.18, "downward_expansion": 16.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.521999, 67.579999, 66.566047, 65.366576 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 69.43, "trend_reference": 63.942291, "distance_from_trend": 0.085823, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.31305, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327202, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.317975, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.118127, "excess_performance": -0.052765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085823, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05712, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.327202, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044854, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019723, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118127, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.059856, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20665, "relative_activity": 0.759684, "balance": 11.059856, "dry_up": 0.633664, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027621, "annualized_volatility": 0.197472, "from_high_reference": -0.001007, "from_low_reference": 0.314098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.942291, "fair_value_reference": 52.31305, "structural_low": 57.630001, "invalidation": "A 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}, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.419998, "volume": 16428, "typical_volume": 33386.15, "trend": 63.622107, "fair_value": 52.139962, "relative_strength": -2.777778, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.337444, "energy": 29.1967, "activity_lines": [ 66.761998, 67.157454, 66.108238, 64.991874 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.43, "volume": 20665, "typical_volume": 27202.1, "trend": 63.942291, "fair_value": 52.31305, "relative_strength": -1.317975, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.726135, "energy": 38.404192, "activity_lines": [ 67.521999, 67.579999, 66.566047, 65.366576 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }