{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec88283b-37c9-4de4-a8f3-4249c0b1f3ca", "symbol": "300106", "name": "Xinjiang Western Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.154, "architecture_energy": 62.856, "architecture_maturity": 16.077, "architecture_confidence": 80.513, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.47, "rotation_up": 10.06, "upward_expansion": 12.56, "deceleration": 40.22, "rotation_down": 72.63, "downward_expansion": 88.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.031333, 9.530909, 10.687857, 10.845269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.34, "trend_reference": 11.000667, "distance_from_trend": -0.150961, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.596282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026706, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.08735, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.159316, "excess_performance": -0.166716, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150961, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029067, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026706, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.526912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190873, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204701, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.159316, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.023106, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71156444, "relative_activity": 1.489578, "balance": 1.023106, "dry_up": 1.541076, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166529, "annualized_volatility": 0.564667, "from_high_reference": -0.409235, "from_low_reference": 0.163138 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.000667, "fair_value_reference": 9.596282, "structural_low": 8.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.018272, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": 0.022446, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.300971, "worst_return": -0.12056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.026618, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.06182, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.59699, "worst_return": -0.170635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.11064, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.158618, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.478261, "worst_return": -0.15873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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42.065927, "activity_lines": [ 13.229333, 12.983455, 12.023381, 11.714366 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 11.08, "volume": 32625444, "typical_volume": 44947428.75, "trend": 11.404667, "fair_value": 9.543333, "relative_strength": -19.791112, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.338718, "energy": 18.920997, "activity_lines": [ 12.419333, 12.754727, 11.976571, 11.691978 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 9.95, "volume": 6495500, "typical_volume": 43351019.25, "trend": 11.375667, "fair_value": 9.555321, "relative_strength": -26.138291, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.382198, "energy": 18.242358, "activity_lines": [ 11.404667, 12.296182, 11.822952, 11.598129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.2, "volume": 7042624, "typical_volume": 40403589.05, "trend": 11.33, "fair_value": 9.568141, "relative_strength": -22.605744, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.790197, "energy": 30.963207, "activity_lines": [ 10.735333, 11.879091, 11.698667, 11.52228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.68, "volume": 29196813, "typical_volume": 39876711.15, "trend": 11.281667, "fair_value": 9.580513, "relative_strength": -23.099788, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.127614, "energy": 38.193915, "activity_lines": [ 10.187333, 11.377818, 11.531524, 11.415828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.42, "volume": 51707028, "typical_volume": 41171817.55, "trend": 11.249667, "fair_value": 9.589423, "relative_strength": -17.163478, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.290854, "energy": 48.693906, "activity_lines": [ 9.826667, 10.863455, 11.347238, 11.29572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.15, "volume": 73277383, "typical_volume": 42360706.8, "trend": 11.124667, "fair_value": 9.589038, "relative_strength": -27.991, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.853567, "energy": 74.850285, "activity_lines": [ 9.188, 10.202, 11.052238, 11.095742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.95, "volume": 98324877, "typical_volume": 45705250.2, "trend": 11.047667, "fair_value": 9.593718, "relative_strength": -19.106434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.326483, "energy": 66.183409, "activity_lines": [ 9.011333, 9.786182, 10.846952, 10.955441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.34, "volume": 71156444, "typical_volume": 47769517.1, "trend": 11.000667, "fair_value": 9.596282, "relative_strength": -19.08735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.154299, "energy": 62.855737, "activity_lines": [ 9.031333, 9.530909, 10.687857, 10.845269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }