{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec88c1b1-5420-4613-b412-eed427f14ea7", "symbol": "COIL", "name": "Coiled Therapeutics plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.739, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.205, "architecture_energy": 10.921, "architecture_maturity": 30.051, "architecture_confidence": 66.875, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.68, "rotation_up": 12.26, "upward_expansion": 16.98, "deceleration": 67.89, "rotation_down": 40.2, "downward_expansion": 52.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0975, 0.098364, 0.09731, 0.097113 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.095, "trend_reference": 0.10005, "distance_from_trend": -0.050475, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.344776, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.724458, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.614596, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.208333, "excess_performance": -0.259569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050475, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143408, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.724458, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084797, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.326146, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183772, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.208333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.398908, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 372181, "relative_activity": 0.473283, "balance": 1.398908, "dry_up": 0.623343, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14996, "annualized_volatility": 0.672735, "from_high_reference": -0.683333, "from_low_reference": 0.407407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.10005, "fair_value_reference": 0.344776, "structural_low": 0.0675, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.006401, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.169697, "worst_return": -0.403846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.181818, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.13906, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.074074, "worst_return": -0.38961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.476403, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.074074, "worst_return": -0.61039, "sufficient": true }, { 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Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.0125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.324675, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.297872, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.30303, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { 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0.1, "volume": 512559, "typical_volume": 787569.85, "trend": 0.103133, "fair_value": 0.357244, "relative_strength": -29.941935, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.291452, "energy": 16.28925, "activity_lines": [ 0.098333, 0.100991, 0.09651, 0.098026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1, "volume": 522994, "typical_volume": 784780.25, "trend": 0.102133, "fair_value": 0.354038, "relative_strength": -29.977746, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.651417, "energy": 14.438582, "activity_lines": [ 0.098833, 0.100691, 0.097014, 0.097824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0975, "volume": 553008, "typical_volume": 786102.1, "trend": 0.101383, "fair_value": 0.349455, "relative_strength": -31.590134, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.831506, "energy": 12.079733, "activity_lines": [ 0.0985, 0.099573, 0.097269, 0.097525 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.095, "volume": 372181, "typical_volume": 786381.1, "trend": 0.10005, "fair_value": 0.344776, "relative_strength": -32.614596, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.205245, "energy": 10.920532, "activity_lines": [ 0.0975, 0.098364, 0.09731, 0.097113 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }