{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec910d4c-5980-4fcb-aa91-1f7827f8b5d9", "symbol": "CMMB", "name": "Chemomab Therapeutics Ltd DRC", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.929, "architecture_energy": 9.839, "architecture_maturity": 37.27, "architecture_confidence": 57.642, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 71.91, "rotation_up": 26.27, "upward_expansion": 17.48, "deceleration": 57.39, "rotation_down": 43.61, "downward_expansion": 37.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.652667, 1.687818, 1.71452, 1.709295 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.93, "trend_reference": 1.69395, "distance_from_trend": 0.139349, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.770888, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.488184, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.795662, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.261191, "excess_performance": 0.073737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.139349, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097338, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.488184, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080566, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.285654, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.261191, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.497318, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 470534, "relative_activity": 0.974944, "balance": 0.497318, "dry_up": 0.95246, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215604, "annualized_volatility": 0.952421, "from_high_reference": -0.531553, "from_low_reference": 0.42963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.69395, "fair_value_reference": 3.770888, "structural_low": 1.35, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.135, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.156762, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.180303, "worst_return": -0.32659, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.367127, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.362457, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.621061, "worst_return": -0.48, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.429952, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.393434, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.060606, "worst_return": -0.4825, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.420227, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.288436, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.545455, "worst_return": -0.705, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-01-06", "end": "2023-03-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.345133, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-17", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-06-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.275, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.174242, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.199424, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136486, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.298851, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159236, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-14", 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.968972, "energy": 16.2849, "activity_lines": [ 1.816, 1.801636, 1.759533, 1.736487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.56, "volume": 670648, "typical_volume": 465201.05, "trend": 1.71195, "fair_value": 3.835503, "relative_strength": -39.399518, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.882911, "energy": 8.147699, "activity_lines": [ 1.751333, 1.758182, 1.741828, 1.725974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.36, "volume": 346048, "typical_volume": 470973.7, "trend": 1.697283, "fair_value": 3.810888, "relative_strength": -44.66211, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.162299, "energy": 10.31857, "activity_lines": [ 1.626, 1.682182, 1.706503, 1.703268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.55, "volume": 351500, "typical_volume": 474228.2, "trend": 1.689283, "fair_value": 3.788772, "relative_strength": -35.487735, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.027921, "energy": 21.63847, "activity_lines": [ 1.574667, 1.646182, 1.69175, 1.693765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.93, "volume": 470534, "typical_volume": 482626.55, "trend": 1.69395, "fair_value": 3.770888, "relative_strength": -21.795662, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.928545, "energy": 9.838946, "activity_lines": [ 1.652667, 1.687818, 1.71452, 1.709295 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }