{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec93bf95-8797-472b-a12f-8f45ff771b91", "symbol": "600234", "name": "Kexin Development Co.,Ltd,Shanxi", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.004, "architecture_energy": 34.481, "architecture_maturity": 38.266, "architecture_confidence": 41.788, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.54, "rotation_up": 14.1, "upward_expansion": 17.06, "deceleration": 63.97, "rotation_down": 63.91, "downward_expansion": 42.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.285333, 21.462182, 22.887238, 21.663828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.629999, "trend_reference": 19.609, "distance_from_trend": 0.052068, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.073526, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.273648, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 31.160686, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.494927, "excess_performance": 0.538131, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052068, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.21659, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.273648, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.478137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.311607, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.915694, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.494927, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.547562, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19467100, "relative_activity": 0.757481, "balance": 0.547562, "dry_up": 0.88842, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.188374, "annualized_volatility": 0.711128, "from_high_reference": -0.355715, "from_low_reference": 1.485542 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.609, "fair_value_reference": 9.073526, "structural_low": 12.85, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.011491, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001811, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.455866, "worst_return": -0.327774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.214035, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.200989, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.675497, "worst_return": -0.236055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.456954, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.325055, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.874172, "worst_return": -0.370474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"trend": 19.057, "fair_value": 8.834231, "relative_strength": 27.936599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.114794, "energy": 12.803737, "activity_lines": [ 23.283334, 24.405455, 23.779714, 21.735505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.110001, "volume": 29091681, "typical_volume": 25783700.7, "trend": 19.194333, "fair_value": 8.910064, "relative_strength": 21.812733, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.393341, "energy": 21.596486, "activity_lines": [ 21.062001, 23.141273, 23.431476, 21.674409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.75, "volume": 21000037, "typical_volume": 26057389.9, "trend": 19.349667, "fair_value": 8.983013, "relative_strength": 17.56074, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.399066, "energy": 30.610326, "activity_lines": [ 19.352, 21.965091, 23.028952, 21.581226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.629999, "volume": 19467100, "typical_volume": 25699801.85, "trend": 19.609, "fair_value": 9.073526, "relative_strength": 31.160686, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.004342, "energy": 34.480546, "activity_lines": [ 19.285333, 21.462182, 22.887238, 21.663828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }