{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec9aa706-a6af-4d27-852c-c9824dbfc598", "symbol": "GREEN", "name": "Green Resources Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 90.141, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.659, "architecture_energy": 17.289, "architecture_maturity": 26.712, "architecture_confidence": 77.472, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.98, "rotation_up": 29.98, "upward_expansion": 53.28, "deceleration": 87.36, "rotation_down": 22.62, "downward_expansion": 16.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.717333, 0.720364, 0.718286, 0.705011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.71, "trend_reference": 0.685333, "distance_from_trend": 0.035992, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.857756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.172259, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.207667, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.126984, "excess_performance": -0.065341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035992, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044715, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.172259, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016906, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102077, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027755, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126984, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.723298, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 517400, "relative_activity": 0.18575, "balance": 1.723298, "dry_up": 0.353658, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060672, "annualized_volatility": 0.209262, "from_high_reference": -0.236559, "from_low_reference": 0.245614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.685333, "fair_value_reference": 0.857756, "structural_low": 0.57, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.061504, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.064941, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.174419, "worst_return": -0.010526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009271, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004549, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.348837, "worst_return": -0.084211, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.08572, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.085657, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.209302, "worst_return": -0.271845, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.204918, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.153495, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.05814, "worst_return": -0.342105, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.257426, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.174757, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.325581, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066116, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123894, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009709, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04717, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.151515, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.154762, "active": false 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.090823, "energy": 25.530842, "activity_lines": [ 0.722, 0.722909, 0.714381, 0.697935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.72, "volume": 674400, "typical_volume": 2740165.0, "trend": 0.68, "fair_value": 0.859744, "relative_strength": -11.813418, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.196329, "energy": 17.543879, "activity_lines": [ 0.72, 0.722909, 0.716524, 0.70071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.72, "volume": 1249100, "typical_volume": 2780735.0, "trend": 0.683333, "fair_value": 0.85859, "relative_strength": -10.189062, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.107116, "energy": 18.757265, "activity_lines": [ 0.719333, 0.722909, 0.718143, 0.70329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.71, "volume": 517400, "typical_volume": 2785460.0, "trend": 0.685333, "fair_value": 0.857756, "relative_strength": -10.207667, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.659477, "energy": 17.288969, "activity_lines": [ 0.717333, 0.720364, 0.718286, 0.705011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }