{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec9d30b4-1621-4477-844a-adaf37ec52e5", "symbol": "HOT", "name": "HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.168, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.2, "architecture_energy": 21.817, "architecture_maturity": 46.268, "architecture_confidence": 75.739, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.09, "rotation_up": 17.63, "upward_expansion": 45.07, "deceleration": 81.39, "rotation_down": 44.71, "downward_expansion": 36.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 449.559998, 463.698181, 473.034942, 459.384884 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 452.399994, "trend_reference": 436.063186, "distance_from_trend": 0.037464, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 198.954995, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.273881, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.038501, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.25587, "excess_performance": 0.19123, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037464, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145116, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.273881, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.04676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.150385, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.738321, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.25587, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.793935, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 366293, "relative_activity": 1.339824, "balance": 0.793935, "dry_up": 1.196732, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066823, "annualized_volatility": 0.437703, "from_high_reference": -0.183394, "from_low_reference": 1.244116 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 436.063186, "fair_value_reference": 198.954995, "structural_low": 344.463408, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.047802, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011501, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.16823, "worst_return": 0.020256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.177391, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.143414, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.407013, "worst_return": 0.149469, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.428995, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.361001, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.621153, "worst_return": 0.345841, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"up", "direction": 33.60347, "energy": 19.782313, "activity_lines": [ 473.693337, 482.310911, 476.655492, 455.739431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 447.399994, "volume": 216396, "typical_volume": 274832.3, "trend": 428.957312, "fair_value": 194.268693, "relative_strength": 22.147516, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.960617, "energy": 16.229032, "activity_lines": [ 461.520001, 475.087273, 475.777568, 457.189639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 443.2, "volume": 461034, "typical_volume": 274808.1, "trend": 432.61638, "fair_value": 196.588944, "relative_strength": 17.039572, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.342374, "energy": 19.317593, "activity_lines": [ 452.186668, 468.32, 474.131461, 458.108522 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 452.399994, "volume": 366293, "typical_volume": 273388.85, "trend": 436.063186, "fair_value": 198.954995, "relative_strength": 15.038501, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.200291, "energy": 21.816519, "activity_lines": [ 449.559998, 463.698181, 473.034942, 459.384884 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }