{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eca3c2e6-3c0e-42aa-b231-db4c9db0ab38", "symbol": "AMP", "name": "Amplifon S.p.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.482, "architecture_energy": 71.178, "architecture_maturity": 8.884, "architecture_confidence": 50.838, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.14, "rotation_up": 78.41, "upward_expansion": 67.67, "deceleration": 18.08, "rotation_down": 16.35, "downward_expansion": 23.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.528667, 11.063436, 10.690151, 10.591956 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 11.835, "trend_reference": 10.897259, "distance_from_trend": 0.086053, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.128212, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.439848, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.425739, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.10742, "excess_performance": -0.281667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086053, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07048, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.439848, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08916, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224257, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151487, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.10742, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.43991, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.43991, "dry_up": 0.083452, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054664, "annualized_volatility": 0.607633, "from_high_reference": -0.244164, "from_low_reference": 0.525515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.897259, "fair_value_reference": 21.128212, "structural_low": 7.758036, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.022294, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02953, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.087637, "worst_return": -0.043049, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.010523, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018828, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.010523, "worst_return": 0.010523, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.089888, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.039087, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089888, "worst_return": 0.089888, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -29.286413, "energy": 22.950153, "activity_lines": [ 10.282267, 10.387249, 10.125141, 10.538208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.52, "volume": 3858, "typical_volume": 3655.5, "trend": 11.158499, "fair_value": 21.583861, "relative_strength": -33.686634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.577515, "energy": 20.020958, "activity_lines": [ 10.331867, 10.42094, 10.156609, 10.490443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.725, "volume": 1047, "typical_volume": 3707.85, "trend": 11.073698, "fair_value": 21.463561, "relative_strength": -29.611787, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.376318, "energy": 7.563175, "activity_lines": [ 10.467133, 10.464582, 10.218073, 10.462476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.955, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3166.55, "trend": 10.991049, "fair_value": 21.344126, "relative_strength": -27.622566, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.421076, "energy": 14.549699, "activity_lines": [ 10.668733, 10.550382, 10.311424, 10.454818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.23, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3166.55, "trend": 10.948304, "fair_value": 21.236095, "relative_strength": -18.341652, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.719756, "energy": 54.664603, "activity_lines": [ 11.250667, 10.86, 10.524294, 10.53475 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.835, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3136.55, "trend": 10.897259, "fair_value": 21.128212, "relative_strength": -22.425739, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.481903, "energy": 71.178298, "activity_lines": [ 11.528667, 11.063436, 10.690151, 10.591956 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }