{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eca41146-c7d4-4b5c-aa2e-e2034d1ae645", "symbol": "PEAM", "name": "INVESCO MARKETS II PLC INVESCO", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.836, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.122, "architecture_energy": 15.224, "architecture_maturity": 32.168, "architecture_confidence": 81.56, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.05, "rotation_up": 28.62, "upward_expansion": 49.48, "deceleration": 77.38, "rotation_down": 28.02, "downward_expansion": 25.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 4522.716667, 4536.522727, 4537.27619, 4490.754301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4582.25, "trend_reference": 4461.941667, "distance_from_trend": 0.026963, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4378.748449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046475, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.329419, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008862, "excess_performance": -0.042374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026963, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016037, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046475, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032206, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043294, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002785, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008862, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.082655, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10247, "relative_activity": 1.049156, "balance": 2.082655, "dry_up": 1.157097, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030522, "annualized_volatility": 0.230437, "from_high_reference": -0.047646, "from_low_reference": 0.192828 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4461.941667, "fair_value_reference": 4378.748449, "structural_low": 3841.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.007897, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.002712, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.047485, "worst_return": -0.028857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018316, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.010922, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.04985, "worst_return": -0.009906, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.045734, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.100914, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.001481, "worst_return": -0.087385, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027341, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013313, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012329, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017203, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045052, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0116, "active": 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"close": 4496.0, "volume": 17530, "typical_volume": 9506.35, "trend": 4461.491667, "fair_value": 4380.623602, "relative_strength": -5.287172, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.307642, "energy": 17.417089, "activity_lines": [ 4506.55, 4547.65, 4518.371429, 4480.140323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4507.0, "volume": 7193, "typical_volume": 9487.15, "trend": 4463.241667, "fair_value": 4379.442256, "relative_strength": -5.932409, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.523452, "energy": 18.984127, "activity_lines": [ 4502.55, 4534.572727, 4525.170238, 4483.076344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4582.25, "volume": 10247, "typical_volume": 9766.9, "trend": 4461.941667, "fair_value": 4378.748449, "relative_strength": -4.329419, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.121583, "energy": 15.223501, "activity_lines": [ 4522.716667, 4536.522727, 4537.27619, 4490.754301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }