{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eca811b7-5ce3-44e9-bb21-cb69d799f717", "symbol": "FDNI", "name": "FIRST TRUST DOW JONES INTERNATIONAL INTERNET ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.974, "architecture_energy": 13.061, "architecture_maturity": 26.014, "architecture_confidence": 41.576, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.86, "rotation_up": 39.77, "upward_expansion": 26.45, "deceleration": 40.61, "rotation_down": 18.26, "downward_expansion": 51.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.773393, 27.082024, 27.108637, 27.447433 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 29.374, "trend_reference": 28.387693, "distance_from_trend": 0.034744, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.667564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.061676, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.163386, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.052757, "excess_performance": -0.240211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034744, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083817, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.061676, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031265, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191634, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101428, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052757, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.258568, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16487, "relative_activity": 0.161909, "balance": 0.258568, "dry_up": 0.605146, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056162, "annualized_volatility": 0.271958, "from_high_reference": -0.256955, "from_low_reference": 0.224427 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.387693, "fair_value_reference": 27.667564, "structural_low": 23.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.034887, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.051615, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.071014, "worst_return": -0.157772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.069921, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.091512, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.010362, "worst_return": -0.250839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.033787, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.143179, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.117102, "worst_return": -0.249579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.168652, "energy": 39.122691, "activity_lines": [ 26.401127, 26.458782, 26.965233, 27.663448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.9931, "volume": 33842, "typical_volume": 106825.25, "trend": 28.808987, "fair_value": 27.597282, "relative_strength": -25.489795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.538149, "energy": 33.54028, "activity_lines": [ 26.33772, 26.34472, 26.839869, 27.46372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.7526, "volume": 36812, "typical_volume": 104760.95, "trend": 28.57006, "fair_value": 27.624748, "relative_strength": -20.320727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.917431, "energy": 16.457054, "activity_lines": [ 26.8777, 26.570831, 26.894502, 27.395566 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.374, "volume": 16487, "typical_volume": 101828.65, "trend": 28.387693, "fair_value": 27.667564, "relative_strength": -19.163386, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.974138, "energy": 13.061263, "activity_lines": [ 27.773393, 27.082024, 27.108637, 27.447433 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }