{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eca89396-34a3-4e79-84ec-73d53568e0a7", "symbol": "CMIG4", "name": "Companhia Energ\u00e9tica de Minas Gerais - CEMIG", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.207, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.355, "architecture_energy": 21.13, "architecture_maturity": 24.53, "architecture_confidence": 63.621, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.04, "rotation_up": 26.33, "upward_expansion": 18.64, "deceleration": 43.67, "rotation_down": 26.7, "downward_expansion": 54.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.101333, 11.041797, 11.147117, 11.317319 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.92, "trend_reference": 11.397429, "distance_from_trend": -0.041889, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.042737, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207599, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.491414, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.000779, "excess_performance": 0.056269, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041889, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012651, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207599, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122243, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034914, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036849, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000779, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.30072, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58001200, "relative_activity": 1.051988, "balance": 0.30072, "dry_up": 0.896704, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037798, "annualized_volatility": 0.252414, "from_high_reference": -0.197565, "from_low_reference": 0.136436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.397429, "fair_value_reference": 9.042737, "structural_low": 10.465813, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.011559, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.013919, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.161263, "worst_return": -0.055418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.064497, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.029271, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.204603, "worst_return": -0.035522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036666, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040911, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.251006, "worst_return": -0.056303, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012149, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019681, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006585, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080299, 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58045825.0, "trend": 11.365381, "fair_value": 8.982737, "relative_strength": -4.259361, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.667981, "energy": 25.925783, "activity_lines": [ 11.102667, 10.951766, 11.222084, 11.348969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.34, "volume": 44305000, "typical_volume": 57193290.0, "trend": 11.385195, "fair_value": 9.014437, "relative_strength": -3.105313, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.955968, "energy": 24.842291, "activity_lines": [ 11.184667, 11.0381, 11.204732, 11.347332 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.92, "volume": 58001200, "typical_volume": 55134840.0, "trend": 11.397429, "fair_value": 9.042737, "relative_strength": -3.491414, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.355448, "energy": 21.129623, "activity_lines": [ 11.101333, 11.041797, 11.147117, 11.317319 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }