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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 95.954, "architecture_energy": 92.942, "architecture_maturity": 50.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.181, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.75, "rotation_up": 85.25, "upward_expansion": 96.1, "deceleration": 41.92, "rotation_down": 8.76, "downward_expansion": 20.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.116666, 21.464181, 20.20519, 19.260236 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.9, "trend_reference": 18.270333, "distance_from_trend": 0.581799, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.709927, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042948, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 39.351354, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.684149, "excess_performance": 0.509902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.581799, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096856, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042948, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.486563, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.393514, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.465403, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.684149, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 14.214906, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 216683, "relative_activity": 3.395572, "balance": 14.214906, "dry_up": 1.540433, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068193, "annualized_volatility": 0.578138, "from_high_reference": -0.025295, "from_low_reference": 1.530648 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.270333, "fair_value_reference": 27.709927, "structural_low": 13.02, 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17.503, "fair_value": 28.757428, "relative_strength": 2.12445, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.875386, "energy": 62.545861, "activity_lines": [ 19.83, 19.505091, 18.796666, 18.21372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.799999, "volume": 26581, "typical_volume": 55237.95, "trend": 17.645667, "fair_value": 28.385633, "relative_strength": -1.474034, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.924407, "energy": 59.370072, "activity_lines": [ 19.921999, 19.578, 18.974333, 18.361914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.5, "volume": 89220, "typical_volume": 57303.95, "trend": 17.830333, "fair_value": 28.020857, "relative_strength": 2.338901, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.855661, "energy": 64.986573, "activity_lines": [ 20.167333, 19.764, 19.202285, 18.546064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.9, "volume": 216683, "typical_volume": 63813.4, "trend": 18.270333, "fair_value": 27.709927, "relative_strength": 39.351354, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.953522, "energy": 92.942432, "activity_lines": [ 23.116666, 21.464181, 20.20519, 19.260236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }