{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ecac9e7e-f206-402f-8967-44790d9f2373", "symbol": "RAY", "name": "Stingray Group Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.26, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.715, "architecture_energy": 17.985, "architecture_maturity": 19.049, "architecture_confidence": 60.968, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.68, "rotation_up": 42.28, "upward_expansion": 45.8, "deceleration": 36.94, "rotation_down": 25.28, "downward_expansion": 8.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.517333, 15.471273, 15.222347, 15.162776 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.4, "trend_reference": 15.200608, "distance_from_trend": 0.013117, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.31183, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.65381, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.169783, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091745, "excess_performance": -0.212166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013117, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035889, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.65381, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092352, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001698, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072804, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091745, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.972214, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81700, "relative_activity": 0.586188, "balance": 0.972214, "dry_up": 0.758565, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070481, "annualized_volatility": 0.395807, "from_high_reference": -0.134635, "from_low_reference": 0.640209 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.200608, "fair_value_reference": 9.31183, "structural_low": 12.923318, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016039, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016832, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.25505, "worst_return": -0.09719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.043303, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.012629, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.25187, "worst_return": -0.148537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.267891, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.221757, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.915211, "worst_return": -0.181133, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 9.100481, "relative_strength": 4.969339, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.269045, "energy": 12.122257, "activity_lines": [ 15.345333, 15.272134, 15.065473, 15.086625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.34, "volume": 153400, "typical_volume": 153145.0, "trend": 15.115657, "fair_value": 9.16982, "relative_strength": 2.873197, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.480243, "energy": 8.890466, "activity_lines": [ 15.36, 15.341978, 15.103269, 15.103429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.8, "volume": 70800, "typical_volume": 145295.0, "trend": 15.16447, "fair_value": 9.242107, "relative_strength": 6.118835, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.209404, "energy": 20.573375, "activity_lines": [ 15.536667, 15.462182, 15.185155, 15.14758 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.4, "volume": 81700, "typical_volume": 139375.0, "trend": 15.200608, "fair_value": 9.31183, "relative_strength": -0.169783, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.715403, "energy": 17.985168, "activity_lines": [ 15.517333, 15.471273, 15.222347, 15.162776 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }