{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ecb16552-d3f3-4b62-9fca-24d54ac7d6b6", "symbol": "IDVY", "name": "iShares Euro Dividend UCITS ETF EUR Dist", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.463, "architecture_energy": 95.598, "architecture_maturity": 29.439, "architecture_confidence": 66.667, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.21, "rotation_up": 87.97, "upward_expansion": 99.92, "deceleration": 39.02, "rotation_down": 9.01, "downward_expansion": 21.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.534, 26.122425, 25.572823, 25.169932 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 27.030001, "trend_reference": 24.730368, "distance_from_trend": 0.092988, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.391665, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.393898, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.809296, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.102803, "excess_performance": -0.068088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092988, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036472, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.393898, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072525, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028093, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030082, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102803, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 26.169847, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72427, "relative_activity": 1.114203, "balance": 26.169847, "dry_up": 1.075525, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01759, "annualized_volatility": 0.129927, "from_high_reference": -0.004053, "from_low_reference": 0.240446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.730368, "fair_value_reference": 19.391665, "structural_low": 22.334999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.003682, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.002455, "regime_survival": 0.65625, "best_return": 0.057846, "worst_return": -0.153949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.018127, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.008434, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.132561, "worst_return": -0.116644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.052716, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.027004, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.196384, "worst_return": -0.135226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 19.239602, "relative_strength": -2.481093, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.011312, "energy": 87.507949, "activity_lines": [ 25.903333, 25.656462, 25.19017, 24.881076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.615, "volume": 58907, "typical_volume": 64802.4, "trend": 24.627423, "fair_value": 19.314174, "relative_strength": -1.587223, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.321227, "energy": 91.839157, "activity_lines": [ 26.2, 25.866121, 25.368895, 25.014927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.030001, "volume": 72427, "typical_volume": 65003.4, "trend": 24.730368, "fair_value": 19.391665, "relative_strength": -2.809296, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.462701, "energy": 95.59824, "activity_lines": [ 26.534, 26.122425, 25.572823, 25.169932 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }