{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ecb3081e-e875-4362-a529-951f72a080ba", "symbol": "S6EW", "name": "Ossiam STOXX Europe 600 ESG Equal Weight NR UCITS ETF 1C (EUR)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.049, "architecture_energy": 93.916, "architecture_maturity": 36.105, "architecture_confidence": 74.11, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 80.62, "upward_expansion": 97.18, "deceleration": 42.04, "rotation_down": 12.98, "downward_expansion": 21.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 158.142664, 156.561817, 154.052809, 151.915333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 161.259995, "trend_reference": 149.826666, "distance_from_trend": 0.07631, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 129.54468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244821, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.451501, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081411, "excess_performance": 0.030176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07631, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033363, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244821, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060775, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024515, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024973, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081411, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.811808, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7461, "relative_activity": 4.186164, "balance": 0.811808, "dry_up": 1.065197, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015193, "annualized_volatility": 0.151672, "from_high_reference": -0.001239, "from_low_reference": 0.209027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 149.826666, "fair_value_reference": 129.54468, "structural_low": 133.380005, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.004642, "positive_rate": 0.567568, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.001362, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.060635, "worst_return": -0.100616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.016428, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.007289, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.087615, "worst_return": -0.066677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.040585, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.021169, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.103358, "worst_return": -0.00217, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-03", "close": 156.710007, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1614.25, "trend": 147.51, "fair_value": 128.08609, "relative_strength": 1.395458, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.396, "energy": 84.043025, "activity_lines": [ 154.130668, 152.815092, 150.271858, 149.130151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 154.360001, "volume": 2214, "typical_volume": 1724.95, "trend": 147.994, "fair_value": 128.366026, "relative_strength": 1.659352, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.179577, "energy": 75.795387, "activity_lines": [ 154.467335, 153.313274, 150.826858, 149.572087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 155.789993, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1624.1, "trend": 148.444, "fair_value": 128.646282, "relative_strength": 1.65592, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.960877, "energy": 81.635785, "activity_lines": [ 155.055333, 153.968, 151.504333, 150.075054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 155.899994, "volume": 133, "typical_volume": 1623.25, "trend": 148.890667, "fair_value": 128.915577, "relative_strength": 0.515651, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.845327, "energy": 82.598926, "activity_lines": [ 155.479331, 154.520544, 152.175142, 150.556086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 158.050003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1500.65, "trend": 149.351, "fair_value": 129.216282, "relative_strength": 0.682715, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.236488, "energy": 84.511081, "activity_lines": [ 156.443332, 155.30709, 152.999428, 151.147011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 161.259995, "volume": 7461, "typical_volume": 1782.3, "trend": 149.826666, "fair_value": 129.54468, "relative_strength": 2.451501, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.049318, "energy": 93.915711, "activity_lines": [ 158.142664, 156.561817, 154.052809, 151.915333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }