{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ecb41acf-7335-46d5-a012-080abe4d9f6f", "symbol": "DUSIT", "name": "Dusit Thani Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 68.364, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.442, "architecture_energy": 44.535, "architecture_maturity": 18.715, "architecture_confidence": 58.82, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.35, "rotation_up": 65.65, "upward_expansion": 55.36, "deceleration": 35.81, "rotation_down": 21.44, "downward_expansion": 13.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.526667, 11.376364, 10.949048, 10.82172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.6, "trend_reference": 10.84, "distance_from_trend": 0.070111, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.973718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.163057, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.802886, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035714, "excess_performance": -0.156611, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070111, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003085, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.163057, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144298, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098029, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049278, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.594633, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 547400, "relative_activity": 0.996124, "balance": 2.594633, "dry_up": 1.159673, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043103, "annualized_volatility": 0.293306, "from_high_reference": -0.301205, "from_low_reference": 0.389222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.84, "fair_value_reference": 9.973718, "structural_low": 9.8, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.089888, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.082428, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.462857, "worst_return": 0.008696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.166742, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.191507, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.213483, "worst_return": 0.12, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.337785, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.256066, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.417143, "worst_return": 0.258427, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.011236, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.14192, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.011236, "worst_return": -0.011236, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061798, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082474, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126214, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055046, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061321, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011494, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.234286, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008696, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.108911, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008696, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.8, "volume": 1576600, "typical_volume": 3679265.0, "trend": 11.58, "fair_value": 9.838141, "relative_strength": -1.922572, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.478476, "energy": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.915721, "energy": 29.778628, "activity_lines": [ 10.16, 10.145455, 10.418095, 10.646667 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 10.1, "volume": 562400, "typical_volume": 1254640.0, "trend": 10.806667, "fair_value": 9.99359, "relative_strength": -19.335298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.219238, "energy": 29.700042, "activity_lines": [ 10.146667, 10.138182, 10.354286, 10.6 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 10.3, "volume": 257200, "typical_volume": 1217765.0, "trend": 10.81, "fair_value": 9.980128, "relative_strength": -18.485621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.793737, "energy": 28.716965, "activity_lines": [ 10.2, 10.167273, 10.318095, 10.567312 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 10.2, "volume": 165100, "typical_volume": 1147240.0, "trend": 10.823333, "fair_value": 9.973077, "relative_strength": -19.652159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.189286, "energy": 25.977315, "activity_lines": [ 10.206667, 10.176364, 10.279524, 10.527957 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 11.2, "volume": 546100, "typical_volume": 1092295.0, "trend": 10.83, "fair_value": 9.971795, "relative_strength": -10.648602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.868938, "energy": 15.272191, "activity_lines": [ 10.546667, 10.367273, 10.342381, 10.552258 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 11.0, "volume": 97900, "typical_volume": 1047525.0, "trend": 10.803333, "fair_value": 9.969872, "relative_strength": -10.472219, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.541926, "energy": 26.291842, "activity_lines": [ 10.74, 10.5, 10.38619, 10.563226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.3, "volume": 154400, "typical_volume": 870460.0, "trend": 10.79, "fair_value": 9.96859, "relative_strength": -11.899881, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.134177, "energy": 60.432786, "activity_lines": [ 10.986667, 10.672727, 10.459524, 10.595269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.5, "volume": 1449700, "typical_volume": 779420.0, "trend": 10.8, "fair_value": 9.96859, "relative_strength": -10.879833, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.810827, "energy": 68.241842, "activity_lines": [ 11.22, 10.86, 10.557143, 10.641075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.6, "volume": 984400, "typical_volume": 691105.0, "trend": 10.82, "fair_value": 9.96859, "relative_strength": -11.053329, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.657085, "energy": 69.453601, "activity_lines": [ 11.406667, 11.04, 10.666667, 10.692688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.4, "volume": 672400, "typical_volume": 596855.0, "trend": 10.83, "fair_value": 9.966667, "relative_strength": -12.824606, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.456154, "energy": 65.263008, "activity_lines": [ 11.433333, 11.158182, 10.757143, 10.730108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.5, "volume": 344900, "typical_volume": 550875.0, "trend": 10.85, "fair_value": 9.96859, "relative_strength": -11.097094, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.807783, "energy": 51.837803, "activity_lines": [ 11.48, 11.269091, 10.851429, 10.773333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.6, "volume": 547400, "typical_volume": 549530.0, "trend": 10.84, "fair_value": 9.973718, "relative_strength": -9.802886, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.441654, "energy": 44.534514, "activity_lines": [ 11.526667, 11.376364, 10.949048, 10.82172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }