{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ecbb70c6-8559-4869-a100-b7d557c5ffce", "symbol": "SEEM", "name": "SEI SELECT EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.082, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.004, "architecture_energy": 19.677, "architecture_maturity": 55.127, "architecture_confidence": 87.295, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.51, "rotation_up": 23.08, "upward_expansion": 53.56, "deceleration": 90.67, "rotation_down": 31.11, "downward_expansion": 17.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.845427, 38.234093, 38.203867, 37.370564 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 38.4804, "trend_reference": 36.307579, "distance_from_trend": 0.059845, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.263992, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31494, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.814753, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.109713, "excess_performance": -0.077741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059845, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077704, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31494, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096075, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008148, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065737, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109713, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.999478, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 541163, "relative_activity": 1.964798, "balance": 1.999478, "dry_up": 1.21432, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054862, "annualized_volatility": 0.280201, "from_high_reference": -0.072399, "from_low_reference": 0.409196 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.307579, "fair_value_reference": 29.263992, "structural_low": 31.405812, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011376, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033189, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 24.227365, "volume": 1461256, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 24.037999, "volume": 32063, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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"close": 37.2443, "volume": 243393, "typical_volume": 323750.4, "trend": 35.916469, "fair_value": 29.077919, "relative_strength": 3.539013, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.713646, "energy": 20.485623, "activity_lines": [ 37.865891, 38.466802, 38.015067, 37.112718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.5385, "volume": 388997, "typical_volume": 261788.0, "trend": 36.105824, "fair_value": 29.166977, "relative_strength": 3.55372, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.374629, "energy": 18.52743, "activity_lines": [ 37.645077, 38.258796, 38.07651, 37.217365 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.4804, "volume": 541163, "typical_volume": 275429.4, "trend": 36.307579, "fair_value": 29.263992, "relative_strength": 0.814753, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.003819, "energy": 19.677004, "activity_lines": [ 37.845427, 38.234093, 38.203867, 37.370564 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }