{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eccc2e14-2ef9-4a38-b005-0960f0dfad68", "symbol": "SKB", "name": "Koenig & Bauer AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.059, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.72, "architecture_energy": 10.892, "architecture_maturity": 33.491, "architecture_confidence": 62.635, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.42, "rotation_up": 28.48, "upward_expansion": 20.57, "deceleration": 35.63, "rotation_down": 26.08, "downward_expansion": 52.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.917333, 8.832364, 8.909905, 8.937312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.01, "trend_reference": 9.049, "distance_from_trend": -0.00431, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.008013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.249668, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.698724, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.037393, "excess_performance": -0.102033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00431, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056905, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.249668, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036628, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206987, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020366, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037393, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.588497, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48163, "relative_activity": 1.248833, "balance": 0.588497, "dry_up": 0.659097, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070435, "annualized_volatility": 0.309899, "from_high_reference": -0.452612, "from_low_reference": 0.162581 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.049, "fair_value_reference": 12.008013, "structural_low": 7.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.031389, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.035906, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.170825, "worst_return": -0.248699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.107498, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.086421, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.201536, "worst_return": -0.30597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.255055, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.24574, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.063866, "worst_return": -0.353211, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.380282, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.416681, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.294725, "worst_return": -0.563916, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064784, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04236, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094412, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.173502, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.203077, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029448, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194839, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062295, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124417, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094366, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098404, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181138, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.093439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.067288, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.28, "volume": 59325, "typical_volume": 54151.25, "trend": 18.264666, "fair_value": 21.279679, "relative_strength": -17.382827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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12.2125, "relative_strength": -21.226788, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.408025, "energy": 27.784101, "activity_lines": [ 8.744667, 8.811636, 8.929333, 9.022968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.6, "volume": 20221, "typical_volume": 46922.2, "trend": 9.227, "fair_value": 12.145449, "relative_strength": -22.421331, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.763937, "energy": 28.311449, "activity_lines": [ 8.718667, 8.753091, 8.898238, 8.978344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.8, "volume": 11720, "typical_volume": 42773.45, "trend": 9.163667, "fair_value": 12.085577, "relative_strength": -20.659178, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.732769, "energy": 17.661506, "activity_lines": [ 8.754, 8.740364, 8.888524, 8.950796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.05, "volume": 21572, "typical_volume": 40223.75, "trend": 9.105333, "fair_value": 12.04282, "relative_strength": -19.212633, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.854831, "energy": 11.833839, "activity_lines": [ 8.864, 8.788727, 8.90219, 8.943462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.01, "volume": 48163, "typical_volume": 38566.4, "trend": 9.049, "fair_value": 12.008013, "relative_strength": -20.698724, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.719589, "energy": 10.891704, "activity_lines": [ 8.917333, 8.832364, 8.909905, 8.937312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }