{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ecce016f-e4aa-44ea-9cdc-6ee9749e82ed", "symbol": "001309", "name": "Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.039, "architecture_energy": 44.947, "architecture_maturity": 71.494, "architecture_confidence": 45.446, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.83, "rotation_up": 16.67, "upward_expansion": 21.14, "deceleration": 70.13, "rotation_down": 72.31, "downward_expansion": 46.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 442.475332, 572.443449, 605.25813, 557.271105 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 404.160004, "trend_reference": 478.959872, "distance_from_trend": -0.156171, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 175.488508, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.303057, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.28252, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.488542, "excess_performance": 0.481143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156171, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.390443, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.303057, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.437218, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.152825, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.175777, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.488542, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.510671, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 127142021, "relative_activity": 1.801894, "balance": 0.510671, "dry_up": 1.541155, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.322928, "annualized_volatility": 1.084103, "from_high_reference": -0.587592, "from_low_reference": 3.745874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 478.959872, "fair_value_reference": 175.488508, "structural_low": 226.761112, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.00339, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018595, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.427608, "worst_return": -0.273792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.14643, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.014577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.996811, "worst_return": -0.337298, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.61794, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.259915, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.977787, "worst_return": -0.070787, "sufficient": false }, { 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565.462966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 536.539978, "volume": 34000863, "typical_volume": 64027415.15, "trend": 461.342977, "fair_value": 169.026808, "relative_strength": 68.013422, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.840447, "energy": 49.485579, "activity_lines": [ 742.823315, 729.794715, 656.102074, 571.007022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 399.890015, "volume": 135437722, "typical_volume": 66950269.45, "trend": 468.304353, "fair_value": 171.215596, "relative_strength": 22.432877, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.285554, "energy": 14.36538, "activity_lines": [ 617.357992, 672.403447, 639.977423, 567.042315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 385.899994, "volume": 138396289, "typical_volume": 69237131.1, "trend": 473.209404, "fair_value": 173.271972, "relative_strength": 17.882342, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -15.545843, "energy": 32.069895, "activity_lines": [ 508.03666, 618.144356, 621.90584, 561.725904 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 404.160004, "volume": 127142021, "typical_volume": 70560225.15, "trend": 478.959872, "fair_value": 175.488508, "relative_strength": 15.28252, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.039195, "energy": 44.947182, "activity_lines": [ 442.475332, 572.443449, 605.25813, 557.271105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }