{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ecce32c5-2a9a-4dbb-aa38-c23d723e33b7", "symbol": "ZCLN", "name": "BMO Clean Energy Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.748, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.819, "architecture_energy": 57.654, "architecture_maturity": 5.762, "architecture_confidence": 78.6, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.83, "rotation_up": 14.12, "upward_expansion": 26.98, "deceleration": 50.3, "rotation_down": 69.48, "downward_expansion": 54.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.562, 20.396909, 21.312881, 21.087516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.67, "trend_reference": 20.6405, "distance_from_trend": -0.047019, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.766375, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247592, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.690753, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007168, "excess_performance": -0.113253, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047019, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050462, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247592, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086908, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236439, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007168, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.935074, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31400, "relative_activity": 0.645891, "balance": 0.935074, "dry_up": 0.832562, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070079, "annualized_volatility": 0.298881, "from_high_reference": -0.221915, "from_low_reference": 0.366299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.6405, "fair_value_reference": 15.766375, "structural_low": 18.1, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.017428, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.044334, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.117957, "worst_return": -0.057584, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.017026, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122855, "worst_return": -0.088803, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.001528, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063046, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106913, "worst_return": -0.103858, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 21.800839, "activity_lines": [ 21.756666, 22.399545, 22.015166, 21.356556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.91, "volume": 43400, "typical_volume": 49560.0, "trend": 20.519869, "fair_value": 15.730797, "relative_strength": -4.548552, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.831564, "energy": 22.198639, "activity_lines": [ 21.046, 21.888182, 21.885, 21.322024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.32, "volume": 40700, "typical_volume": 48590.0, "trend": 20.5715, "fair_value": 15.738589, "relative_strength": -7.68344, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.525394, "energy": 39.745994, "activity_lines": [ 20.314667, 21.311454, 21.694357, 21.244613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.07, "volume": 46400, "typical_volume": 48970.0, "trend": 20.6035, "fair_value": 15.749477, "relative_strength": -8.528049, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.78591, "energy": 52.284341, "activity_lines": [ 19.763333, 20.757091, 21.474333, 21.147742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.67, "volume": 31400, "typical_volume": 48615.0, "trend": 20.6405, "fair_value": 15.766375, "relative_strength": -8.690753, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.819037, "energy": 57.653731, "activity_lines": [ 19.562, 20.396909, 21.312881, 21.087516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }