{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ecd9b9bf-bbdb-4668-8a86-f38f7f64ca8a", "symbol": "002217", "name": "Holitech Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.526, "architecture_energy": 86.039, "architecture_maturity": 36.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.074, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.2, "rotation_up": 10.53, "upward_expansion": 21.68, "deceleration": 37.12, "rotation_down": 77.45, "downward_expansion": 97.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.475333, 1.659455, 2.066381, 2.258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.5, "trend_reference": 2.514333, "distance_from_trend": -0.40342, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.365064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.365768, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.721225, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.509804, "excess_performance": -0.517204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.40342, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149989, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.365768, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.751339, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.487212, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.462756, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.509804, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.234801, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 848404226, "relative_activity": 0.522085, "balance": 0.234801, "dry_up": 0.51663, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215385, "annualized_volatility": 0.645031, "from_high_reference": -0.65358, "from_low_reference": 0.094891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.514333, "fair_value_reference": 2.365064, "structural_low": 1.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.01327, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.016275, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.493333, "worst_return": -0.399209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.013423, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.016992, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.723077, "worst_return": -0.393365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.055944, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.062241, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.546099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2.737333, "fair_value": 2.416923, "relative_strength": -49.987133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.356439, "energy": 81.700281, "activity_lines": [ 1.909333, 2.202182, 2.440524, 2.563935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.52, "volume": 1101729211, "typical_volume": 1678632383.05, "trend": 2.678333, "fair_value": 2.404038, "relative_strength": -47.557727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.2747, "energy": 85.799227, "activity_lines": [ 1.731333, 2.028727, 2.342143, 2.485398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.38, "volume": 718045039, "typical_volume": 1650989604.3, "trend": 2.620333, "fair_value": 2.390385, "relative_strength": -52.044205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.99773, "energy": 89.410771, "activity_lines": [ 1.559333, 1.864545, 2.237905, 2.401634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.46, "volume": 689981709, "typical_volume": 1633450644.2, "trend": 2.566, "fair_value": 2.376474, "relative_strength": -47.966981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.953467, "energy": 87.826944, "activity_lines": [ 1.490667, 1.746, 2.147571, 2.326774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.5, "volume": 848404226, "typical_volume": 1625032097.05, "trend": 2.514333, "fair_value": 2.365064, "relative_strength": -48.721225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.526277, "energy": 86.038639, "activity_lines": [ 1.475333, 1.659455, 2.066381, 2.258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }