{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ecdd2446-b8e4-45c7-9048-deeb8dfbd87d", "symbol": "ALFE", "name": "Alfen N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 66.317, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.461, "architecture_energy": 19.564, "architecture_maturity": 64.612, "architecture_confidence": 77.547, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.71, "rotation_up": 15.99, "upward_expansion": 46.21, "deceleration": 87.53, "rotation_down": 40.42, "downward_expansion": 28.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.950667, 13.565455, 13.855557, 13.041632 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.95, "trend_reference": 12.087533, "distance_from_trend": 0.071352, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.75261, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.34439, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.315446, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.189164, "excess_performance": 0.014918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071352, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118753, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.34439, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046686, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053154, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057567, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.189164, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.220441, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.220441, "dry_up": 1.066279, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118681, "annualized_volatility": 0.606289, "from_high_reference": -0.342973, "from_low_reference": 0.597188 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.087533, "fair_value_reference": 19.75261, "structural_low": 8.108, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.053659, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.027778, "worst_return": -0.027778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0746, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024801, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019157, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096386, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": 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13.373119, 12.453032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.67, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1472.8, "trend": 11.661033, "fair_value": 19.999323, "relative_strength": 6.561087, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.490872, "energy": 40.949385, "activity_lines": [ 15.052667, 15.213455, 13.63421, 12.656299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.32, "volume": 941, "typical_volume": 1393.55, "trend": 11.757033, "fair_value": 19.950569, "relative_strength": -1.743392, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.860893, "energy": 30.873878, "activity_lines": [ 14.434667, 14.942909, 13.7433, 12.763329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.28, "volume": 1033, "typical_volume": 1344.25, "trend": 11.8587, "fair_value": 19.902232, "relative_strength": 0.103025, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.806069, "energy": 25.525697, "activity_lines": [ 13.971333, 14.638909, 13.829552, 12.861585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.01, "volume": 341, "typical_volume": 938.55, "trend": 11.950033, "fair_value": 19.852647, "relative_strength": -2.875473, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.651059, "energy": 26.552147, "activity_lines": [ 13.501333, 14.268909, 13.870414, 12.935862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.65, "volume": 682, "typical_volume": 966.4, "trend": 12.010533, "fair_value": 19.8012, "relative_strength": -5.184853, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.986406, "energy": 19.775973, "activity_lines": [ 13.096, 13.842, 13.8572, 12.981022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.95, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 482.05, "trend": 12.087533, "fair_value": 19.75261, "relative_strength": -5.315446, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.461152, "energy": 19.563955, "activity_lines": [ 12.950667, 13.565455, 13.855557, 13.041632 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }