{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ecddc98d-de1d-4f3c-b5df-57628a0060d2", "symbol": "RADAAN", "name": "Radaan Mediaworks India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.065, "architecture_energy": 13.519, "architecture_maturity": 36.383, "architecture_confidence": 66.701, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.5, "rotation_up": 21.91, "upward_expansion": 13.51, "deceleration": 36.28, "rotation_down": 39.94, "downward_expansion": 63.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.020667, 3.007818, 3.047905, 3.048989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.98, "trend_reference": 3.056667, "distance_from_trend": -0.025082, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.110705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.042018, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.88548, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035599, "excess_performance": 0.00811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025082, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040996, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.042018, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135375, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035599, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.937516, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 135622, "relative_activity": 0.917947, "balance": 1.937516, "dry_up": 2.030076, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111255, "annualized_volatility": 0.418017, "from_high_reference": -0.253133, "from_low_reference": 0.268085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.056667, "fair_value_reference": 3.110705, "structural_low": 2.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.017319, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.023767, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.371429, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.057143, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046576, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.057592, "worst_return": -0.288934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062973, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.032148, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.445714, "worst_return": -0.276639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.092593, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038419, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.285714, "worst_return": -0.403689, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.397906, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146067, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.435185, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.198473, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0275, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.180516, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022785, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097561, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.288934, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034582, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023188, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.196809, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080906, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.080247, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.65, "volume": 237607, "typical_volume": 32842.1, "trend": 1.791667, "fair_value": 1.408333, "relative_strength": -10.550167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"typical_volume": 114488.6, "trend": 3.1, "fair_value": 3.082692, "relative_strength": -7.088552, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.670567, "energy": 28.471345, "activity_lines": [ 2.986, 3.002364, 3.055238, 3.060065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.88, "volume": 56949, "typical_volume": 114020.8, "trend": 3.074667, "fair_value": 3.090577, "relative_strength": -7.832451, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.225128, "energy": 36.903252, "activity_lines": [ 2.944, 2.975818, 3.039238, 3.045871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.21, "volume": 964886, "typical_volume": 154826.75, "trend": 3.067, "fair_value": 3.100897, "relative_strength": 0.519263, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.02429, "energy": 6.894513, "activity_lines": [ 3.027333, 3.013091, 3.055333, 3.054602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.98, "volume": 135622, "typical_volume": 147744.95, "trend": 3.056667, "fair_value": 3.110705, "relative_strength": -6.88548, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.064584, "energy": 13.519378, "activity_lines": [ 3.020667, 3.007818, 3.047905, 3.048989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }