{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ecde0608-dd34-49f2-bbcf-c23e3698f230", "symbol": "600114", "name": "NBTM New Materials Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.862, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.947, "architecture_energy": 57.156, "architecture_maturity": 12.559, "architecture_confidence": 80.843, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.07, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 26.0, "deceleration": 50.93, "rotation_down": 70.61, "downward_expansion": 53.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.828667, 31.333454, 33.440781, 33.201461 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.42, "trend_reference": 32.944573, "distance_from_trend": -0.106985, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.755364, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.417465, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.70245, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.10541, "excess_performance": -0.062206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106985, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057434, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.417465, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.456, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057025, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201116, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.10541, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.783473, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107452024, "relative_activity": 1.232654, "balance": 0.783473, "dry_up": 1.141039, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157346, "annualized_volatility": 0.596841, "from_high_reference": -0.352553, "from_low_reference": 0.272776 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.944573, "fair_value_reference": 20.755364, "structural_low": 24.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.084516, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035212, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.136393, "worst_return": -0.204315, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.074293, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.0718, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084825, "worst_return": -0.189952, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.371375, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.422584, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.740766, "worst_return": 0.001983, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"close": 32.740002, "volume": 113149178, "typical_volume": 80775228.2, "trend": 33.334707, "fair_value": 20.25422, "relative_strength": 4.421483, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.84761, "energy": 25.655817, "activity_lines": [ 37.396667, 37.947676, 35.907517, 34.733196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.25, "volume": 95916425, "typical_volume": 82370242.75, "trend": 33.233461, "fair_value": 20.38183, "relative_strength": -8.050334, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.159476, "energy": 19.659507, "activity_lines": [ 33.619334, 36.082087, 35.245268, 34.340634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.75, "volume": 104516056, "typical_volume": 83999287.2, "trend": 33.07957, "fair_value": 20.497229, "relative_strength": -14.457196, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.607357, "energy": 43.974336, "activity_lines": [ 30.096667, 34.078, 34.478151, 33.85783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.459999, "volume": 89978803, "typical_volume": 85006997.6, "trend": 32.974146, "fair_value": 20.61613, "relative_strength": -12.61465, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.635955, "energy": 47.108524, "activity_lines": [ 28.017333, 32.336727, 33.808527, 33.430761 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.42, "volume": 107452024, "typical_volume": 87171282.8, "trend": 32.944573, "fair_value": 20.755364, "relative_strength": -5.70245, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.947081, "energy": 57.156496, "activity_lines": [ 27.828667, 31.333454, 33.440781, 33.201461 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }