{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ecde97d5-d044-4dd1-9732-fde933fd7f74", "symbol": "AIUU", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY II MSCI USA PAB UCITS ETFUSD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.83, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.917, "architecture_energy": 55.725, "architecture_maturity": 55.611, "architecture_confidence": 53.183, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.58, "rotation_up": 46.7, "upward_expansion": 72.61, "deceleration": 73.44, "rotation_down": 28.67, "downward_expansion": 12.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.020134, 15.9536, 15.865391, 15.525213 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.492001, "trend_reference": 15.1392, "distance_from_trend": 0.089357, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.128276, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.25622, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.308999, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.150391, "excess_performance": 0.067507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089357, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02495, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.25622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028625, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00309, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068029, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150391, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.871813, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 580, "relative_activity": 0.12647, "balance": 2.871813, "dry_up": 0.606731, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019375, "annualized_volatility": 0.154533, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.234246 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.1392, "fair_value_reference": 13.128276, "structural_low": 13.362, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.000286, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041913, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.023077, "worst_return": -0.022504, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.041462, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.045404, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041462, "worst_return": 0.041462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.070513, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.017283, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.070513, "worst_return": 0.070513, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050298, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.060998, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028232, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039748, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068852, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034604, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023077, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-11-24", "close": 10.0247, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-01", "close": 10.1358, "volume": 0, 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"typical_volume": 4283.05, "trend": 15.066667, "fair_value": 13.084966, "relative_strength": -4.058763, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.963933, "energy": 45.001421, "activity_lines": [ 15.8592, 15.908327, 15.724543, 15.393914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.698, "volume": 9410, "typical_volume": 4656.05, "trend": 15.0882, "fair_value": 13.103901, "relative_strength": -3.85035, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.813971, "energy": 37.546846, "activity_lines": [ 15.812933, 15.854691, 15.761257, 15.434645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.492001, "volume": 580, "typical_volume": 4586.05, "trend": 15.1392, "fair_value": 13.128276, "relative_strength": -0.308999, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.917433, "energy": 55.724765, "activity_lines": [ 16.020134, 15.9536, 15.865391, 15.525213 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }