{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ece6f38a-ac57-439c-9df1-c9445f9f2066", "symbol": "5NF", "name": "Mencast Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.408, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.728, "architecture_energy": 16.651, "architecture_maturity": 25.086, "architecture_confidence": 51.707, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.7, "rotation_up": 17.38, "upward_expansion": 15.56, "deceleration": 59.15, "rotation_down": 48.41, "downward_expansion": 40.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.086867, 0.087818, 0.091729, 0.088905 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.089, "trend_reference": 0.0873, "distance_from_trend": 0.019473, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.044269, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.010426, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.55351, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.059524, "excess_performance": -0.095311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019473, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122108, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.010426, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.481985, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.055535, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.653235, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059524, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.060877, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1148500, "relative_activity": 0.089797, "balance": 9.060877, "dry_up": 0.076294, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126188, "annualized_volatility": 0.829815, "from_high_reference": -0.293651, "from_low_reference": 2.423077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0873, "fair_value_reference": 0.044269, "structural_low": 0.048, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.023256, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.027309, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.87037, "worst_return": -0.219512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.281868, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.224869, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.514706, "worst_return": -0.240741, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.259259, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.233249, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.264151, "worst_return": -0.292683, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.269231, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.689655, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09434, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.410714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.205882, "active": false }, { "regime": 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17.010716, "energy": 18.950171, "activity_lines": [ 0.088867, 0.094691, 0.091843, 0.089032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.083, "volume": 1022500, "typical_volume": 13057730.0, "trend": 0.086567, "fair_value": 0.043429, "relative_strength": 5.186191, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.414208, "energy": 19.148415, "activity_lines": [ 0.086333, 0.091945, 0.091586, 0.088849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.087, "volume": 1299200, "typical_volume": 12949135.0, "trend": 0.0874, "fair_value": 0.043705, "relative_strength": 7.568563, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.878209, "energy": 20.083892, "activity_lines": [ 0.086, 0.090236, 0.09169, 0.088877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.086, "volume": 433000, "typical_volume": 12823980.0, "trend": 0.087167, "fair_value": 0.043974, "relative_strength": 4.422104, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.491256, "energy": 18.926642, "activity_lines": [ 0.085933, 0.088582, 0.09161, 0.088787 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.089, "volume": 1148500, "typical_volume": 12789935.0, "trend": 0.0873, "fair_value": 0.044269, "relative_strength": 5.55351, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.727804, "energy": 16.650857, "activity_lines": [ 0.086867, 0.087818, 0.091729, 0.088905 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }