{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eceecda1-9665-467f-8559-282ed477a155", "symbol": "AVOL", "name": "Avolta AG", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-09", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.994, "architecture_energy": 78.399, "architecture_maturity": 12.626, "architecture_confidence": 85.492, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.16, "rotation_up": 10.51, "upward_expansion": 17.97, "deceleration": 38.03, "rotation_down": 79.18, "downward_expansion": 95.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.437334, 43.586909, 45.945333, 46.665796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 42.080002, "trend_reference": 47.16581, "distance_from_trend": -0.107828, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.047192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07767, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.39497, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173473, "excess_performance": -0.219297, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107828, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016095, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07767, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.304188, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11395, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164093, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173473, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.256496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1378472, "relative_activity": 2.175422, "balance": 0.256496, "dry_up": 2.134569, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057034, "annualized_volatility": 0.364642, "from_high_reference": -0.235604, "from_low_reference": 0.089513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.16581, "fair_value_reference": 39.047192, "structural_low": 40.787963, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.024828, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.016856, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.170133, "worst_return": -0.168202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.015678, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.024852, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.268027, "worst_return": -0.164097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.097116, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.133259, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.337175, "worst_return": -0.064754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 675806.7, "trend": 47.904642, "fair_value": 38.768118, "relative_strength": -8.995922, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.743319, "energy": 65.24296, "activity_lines": [ 45.157332, 46.569636, 48.08609, 48.015896 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 41.84, "volume": 1687786, "typical_volume": 687692.65, "trend": 47.621755, "fair_value": 38.822115, "relative_strength": -12.430821, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.337304, "energy": 76.500391, "activity_lines": [ 43.718666, 45.52, 47.495047, 47.624628 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 42.720001, "volume": 1083298, "typical_volume": 648740.0, "trend": 47.395835, "fair_value": 38.886493, "relative_strength": -11.297273, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.306901, "energy": 84.522871, "activity_lines": [ 43.098666, 44.830545, 46.988286, 47.308386 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 42.68, "volume": 1260785, "typical_volume": 642146.35, "trend": 47.324309, "fair_value": 38.967056, "relative_strength": -9.417388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.490264, "energy": 81.377139, "activity_lines": [ 42.750667, 44.225818, 46.491238, 47.004139 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "close": 42.080002, "volume": 1378472, "typical_volume": 633657.35, "trend": 47.16581, "fair_value": 39.047192, "relative_strength": -11.39497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.993511, "energy": 78.398638, "activity_lines": [ 42.437334, 43.586909, 45.945333, 46.665796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }