{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ecf0348f-c0b2-4eb1-8593-0a972e9aa4ff", "symbol": "600033", "name": "Fujian Expressway Development Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.701, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.959, "architecture_energy": 23.213, "architecture_maturity": 85.218, "architecture_confidence": 56.936, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.28, "rotation_up": 38.19, "upward_expansion": 20.17, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 20.93, "downward_expansion": 54.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.544679, 3.48027, 3.508345, 3.560882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.54, "trend_reference": 3.640926, "distance_from_trend": -0.02772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.429956, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032083, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.453831, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.073298, "excess_performance": -0.030095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042823, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.032083, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052644, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024538, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061635, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073298, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.884529, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119590189, "relative_activity": 1.153069, "balance": 1.884529, "dry_up": 1.250364, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043752, "annualized_volatility": 0.173361, "from_high_reference": -0.28512, "from_low_reference": 0.094557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.640926, "fair_value_reference": 3.429956, "structural_low": 3.234185, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.002857, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.02962, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.185286, "worst_return": -0.06424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.020078, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.02461, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.26087, "worst_return": -0.032787, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.235553, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.077646, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235553, "worst_return": 0.235553, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 142022266, "typical_volume": 111117827.6, "trend": 3.68422, "fair_value": 3.420601, "relative_strength": 0.009557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.38408, "energy": 40.750238, "activity_lines": [ 3.428769, 3.433825, 3.502753, 3.57087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.65, "volume": 123602642, "typical_volume": 106500780.0, "trend": 3.660592, "fair_value": 3.425972, "relative_strength": 3.27174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.041173, "energy": 16.757477, "activity_lines": [ 3.518918, 3.468047, 3.510335, 3.568662 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.54, "volume": 119590189, "typical_volume": 103714681.5, "trend": 3.640926, "fair_value": 3.429956, "relative_strength": -2.453831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.958647, "energy": 23.21252, "activity_lines": [ 3.544679, 3.48027, 3.508345, 3.560882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }