{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ecf8c33a-f03e-40d3-8b34-1a9a08b7f7bd",
    "symbol": "QCLN",
    "name": "First Trust Nasdaq Clean Edge Green Energy ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 67.374,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -25.823,
    "architecture_energy": 48.298,
    "architecture_maturity": 3.87,
    "architecture_confidence": 69.97,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 36.93,
        "rotation_up": 14.02,
        "upward_expansion": 21.99,
        "deceleration": 57.6,
        "rotation_down": 67.68,
        "downward_expansion": 46.99
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        23.338,
        24.621636,
        25.682333,
        25.056993
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 23.59,
    "trend_reference": 24.154505,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.023371,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 17.843232,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.32207,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.134678,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.116436,
    "excess_performance": -0.003985,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023371,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.07606,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.32207,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.204102,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.051347,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.284636,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.116436,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.792411,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4600,
      "relative_activity": 0.558252,
      "balance": 0.792411,
      "dry_up": 1.262136,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.06988,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.337143,
      "from_high_reference": -0.219649,
      "from_low_reference": 0.489991
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 24.154505,
      "fair_value_reference": 17.843232,
      "structural_low": 20.000281,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.002161,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.022572,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.017991,
        "worst_return": -0.061281,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.050131,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.080911,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.025929,
        "worst_return": -0.189823,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.00216,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.059259,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.184133,
        "worst_return": -0.177374,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.049697,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.043965,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.489581,
        "worst_return": -0.233075,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009581,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.056792,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.035827,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.044568,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.011506,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.058198,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.017408,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.215348,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.006638,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.007208,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.141373,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.039546,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-10",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.114709,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 19.725227,
        "volume": 1600,
        "typical_volume": 4355.0,
        "trend": 21.945974,
        "fair_value": 25.194712,
        "relative_strength": -13.594544,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.421788,
        "energy": 44.572151,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-08",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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        "fair_value": 17.385378,
        "relative_strength": 20.636169,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.82095,
        "energy": 85.092804,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.526669,
          22.429958,
          21.979265,
          21.665644
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 26.23,
        "volume": 22500,
        "typical_volume": 5305.0,
        "trend": 21.482158,
        "fair_value": 17.428233,
        "relative_strength": 22.960963,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.88521,
        "energy": 92.91728,
        "activity_lines": [
          24.712,
          23.217072,
          22.414052,
          21.98645
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 26.66,
        "volume": 15600,
        "typical_volume": 5945.0,
        "trend": 21.701483,
        "fair_value": 17.468541,
        "relative_strength": 23.328938,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.84167,
        "energy": 94.209614,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.66,
          24.011262,
          22.864601,
          22.320504
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 27.35,
        "volume": 2300,
        "typical_volume": 6015.0,
        "trend": 21.905493,
        "fair_value": 17.512768,
        "relative_strength": 26.532051,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.653385,
        "energy": 94.254822,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.476,
          24.834355,
          23.352959,
          22.684925
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 28.6,
        "volume": 4900,
        "typical_volume": 6260.0,
        "trend": 22.154169,
        "fair_value": 17.560337,
        "relative_strength": 28.69295,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.926252,
        "energy": 95.171104,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.358667,
          25.75127,
          23.928697,
          23.116828
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 29.549999,
        "volume": 13900,
        "typical_volume": 6900.0,
        "trend": 22.447172,
        "fair_value": 17.612671,
        "relative_strength": 30.545034,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.729934,
        "energy": 95.354814,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.25,
          26.701819,
          24.553866,
          23.593978
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 27.809999,
        "volume": 2000,
        "typical_volume": 6850.0,
        "trend": 22.669514,
        "fair_value": 17.652903,
        "relative_strength": 23.074825,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.172533,
        "energy": 82.761256,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.293999,
          27.180727,
          24.975841,
          23.939967
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 28.049999,
        "volume": 1500,
        "typical_volume": 6790.0,
        "trend": 22.940837,
        "fair_value": 17.693475,
        "relative_strength": 21.354344,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.643122,
        "energy": 67.231467,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.312666,
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          25.395003,
          24.287095
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 29.58,
        "volume": 700,
        "typical_volume": 6795.0,
        "trend": 23.287481,
        "fair_value": 17.748589,
        "relative_strength": 26.725722,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.364949,
        "energy": 70.663176,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.748666,
          28.114909,
          25.933588,
          24.715429
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 26.58,
        "volume": 500,
        "typical_volume": 6795.0,
        "trend": 23.492811,
        "fair_value": 17.780397,
        "relative_strength": 13.155614,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.343005,
        "energy": 55.295218,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.036,
          27.977636,
          26.151599,
          24.927849
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 26.549999,
        "volume": 500,
        "typical_volume": 6410.0,
        "trend": 23.675153,
        "fair_value": 17.804746,
        "relative_strength": 11.566779,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.840808,
        "energy": 43.25781,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.447999,
          27.787636,
          26.340798,
          25.125087
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 25.629999,
        "volume": 12400,
        "typical_volume": 6670.0,
        "trend": 23.831492,
        "fair_value": 17.819596,
        "relative_strength": 7.059504,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.707695,
        "energy": 27.190437,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.753333,
          27.411999,
          26.419995,
          25.251206
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 23.98,
        "volume": 23500,
        "typical_volume": 7740.0,
        "trend": 23.937495,
        "fair_value": 17.824564,
        "relative_strength": 0.022973,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 7.043867,
        "energy": 25.666154,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.654,
          26.747272,
          26.326283,
          25.260787
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 22.59,
        "volume": 5900,
        "typical_volume": 7885.0,
        "trend": 24.000497,
        "fair_value": 17.821822,
        "relative_strength": -6.177555,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -19.737181,
        "energy": 36.124698,
        "activity_lines": [
          24.362666,
          25.878545,
          26.087664,
          25.173852
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 22.690001,
        "volume": 7600,
        "typical_volume": 8180.0,
        "trend": 24.090821,
        "fair_value": 17.826041,
        "relative_strength": -5.548735,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -36.916104,
        "energy": 47.094176,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.570667,
          25.114545,
          25.846285,
          25.089304
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 23.59,
        "volume": 4600,
        "typical_volume": 8240.0,
        "trend": 24.154505,
        "fair_value": 17.843232,
        "relative_strength": -5.134678,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -25.823452,
        "energy": 48.297621,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.338,
          24.621636,
          25.682333,
          25.056993
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}