{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed022cc8-2c29-4839-ac96-470e5c9abcac", "symbol": "600126", "name": "Hang Zhou Iron & Steel Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.625, "architecture_energy": 49.552, "architecture_maturity": 53.391, "architecture_confidence": 77.678, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.46, "rotation_up": 26.46, "upward_expansion": 20.29, "deceleration": 58.91, "rotation_down": 46.07, "downward_expansion": 70.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.282667, 6.251189, 6.993501, 7.523807 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.51, "trend_reference": 8.111384, "distance_from_trend": -0.197424, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.80259, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.043012, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.188267, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.272626, "excess_performance": -0.229422, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.197424, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082609, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.043012, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.488669, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.231883, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183556, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.272626, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.534951, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 544374911, "relative_activity": 1.08318, "balance": 0.534951, "dry_up": 1.019389, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108951, "annualized_volatility": 0.54636, "from_high_reference": -0.430944, "from_low_reference": 0.183636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.111384, "fair_value_reference": 6.80259, "structural_low": 5.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.001938, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.005018, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.292899, "worst_return": -0.184933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.072874, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.042026, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.314199, "worst_return": -0.240826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004292, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.005225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.357647, "worst_return": -0.002294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.656263, "energy": 82.955708, "activity_lines": [ 5.931667, 6.274011, 7.239468, 7.738244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.55, "volume": 415863289, "typical_volume": 517338076.3, "trend": 8.166384, "fair_value": 6.788369, "relative_strength": -21.111039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.087347, "energy": 71.168242, "activity_lines": [ 6.132, 6.250481, 7.111937, 7.630671 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.51, "volume": 544374911, "typical_volume": 502570942.95, "trend": 8.111384, "fair_value": 6.80259, "relative_strength": -23.188267, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.625486, "energy": 49.552109, "activity_lines": [ 6.282667, 6.251189, 6.993501, 7.523807 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }