{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed03800c-e6d6-4435-9e6d-ff86edd82628", "symbol": "CSX", "name": "CSX Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.016, "architecture_energy": 65.963, "architecture_maturity": 84.051, "architecture_confidence": 84.129, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 66.97, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 17.82, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.384334, 43.629727, 41.857023, 40.206375 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 43.705002, "trend_reference": 37.942592, "distance_from_trend": 0.151872, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.187503, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.401363, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.511866, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.292833, "excess_performance": 0.118586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.151872, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122991, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.401363, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138534, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045119, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006466, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.292833, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.750968, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12973, "relative_activity": 10.670779, "balance": 6.750968, "dry_up": 4.186922, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03978, "annualized_volatility": 0.222571, "from_high_reference": -0.077662, "from_low_reference": 0.625602 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.942592, "fair_value_reference": 31.187503, "structural_low": 32.960399, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.00014, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027998, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.149597, "worst_return": -0.121212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.041465, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.061089, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.218073, "worst_return": -0.152846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010646, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.080601, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.176787, "worst_return": -0.158319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 37.051519, "fair_value": 30.97644, "relative_strength": 15.253311, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.274467, "energy": 96.710363, "activity_lines": [ 44.607333, 43.070416, 41.044224, 39.379585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.645, "volume": 3100, "typical_volume": 567.15, "trend": 37.483234, "fair_value": 31.078784, "relative_strength": 7.592787, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.951226, "energy": 69.737656, "activity_lines": [ 44.551333, 43.383, 41.470216, 39.804971 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.705002, "volume": 12973, "typical_volume": 1215.75, "trend": 37.942592, "fair_value": 31.187503, "relative_strength": 4.511866, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.016112, "energy": 65.963246, "activity_lines": [ 44.384334, 43.629727, 41.857023, 40.206375 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }