{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed04fce2-c2d0-4a48-a40b-7f4497703d21", "symbol": "9181", "name": "Premia Etf Series -Premia Asia Innovative Technology and Metaverse Theme ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.662, "architecture_energy": 31.891, "architecture_maturity": 68.802, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.45, "rotation_up": 21.56, "upward_expansion": 57.0, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 37.92, "downward_expansion": 20.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.912, 20.354909, 20.191047, 19.428968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.32, "trend_reference": 18.514333, "distance_from_trend": 0.097528, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.988436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.564469, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.347132, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.22928, "excess_performance": 0.262861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097528, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102963, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.564469, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036907, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.183471, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071195, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.22928, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.938247, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 3.938247, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043875, "annualized_volatility": 0.297428, "from_high_reference": -0.077203, "from_low_reference": 0.526672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.514333, "fair_value_reference": 12.988436, "structural_low": 14.87, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.031693, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.008748, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.149072, "worst_return": -0.047285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.141697, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.019061, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.362624, "worst_return": -0.233389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.225775, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.028822, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.444545, "worst_return": -0.029038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00266, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077617, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114545, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.203292, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069215, "active": false 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"fair_value": 12.719205, "relative_strength": 43.309933, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.986626, "energy": 67.459373, "activity_lines": [ 21.376, 21.087273, 19.649047, 18.811527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.16, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10220.0, "trend": 17.960667, "fair_value": 12.779526, "relative_strength": 34.834066, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.587735, "energy": 64.82311, "activity_lines": [ 21.322667, 21.191454, 19.897619, 19.029828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.34, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9670.0, "trend": 18.105333, "fair_value": 12.829846, "relative_strength": 20.341342, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.074878, "energy": 45.907269, "activity_lines": [ 20.662667, 20.904909, 19.953286, 19.118817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.639999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9670.0, "trend": 18.249667, "fair_value": 12.880231, "relative_strength": 19.309298, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.669282, "energy": 29.979209, "activity_lines": [ 20.205333, 20.677091, 20.028762, 19.217828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.58, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9667.5, "trend": 18.377667, "fair_value": 12.930808, "relative_strength": 13.932333, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.893032, "energy": 31.42356, "activity_lines": [ 19.886666, 20.441454, 20.082809, 19.303656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.32, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9667.5, "trend": 18.514333, "fair_value": 12.988436, "relative_strength": 18.347132, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.661947, "energy": 31.891166, "activity_lines": [ 19.912, 20.354909, 20.191047, 19.428968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }