{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed080156-d482-4bc1-86e1-f02432e1f891", "symbol": "XMEX", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Mexico UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.225, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.016, "architecture_energy": 64.953, "architecture_maturity": 35.378, "architecture_confidence": 76.007, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.25, "rotation_up": 62.52, "upward_expansion": 84.36, "deceleration": 49.38, "rotation_down": 14.89, "downward_expansion": 13.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.450333, 7.400291, 7.342767, 7.281125 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.521, "trend_reference": 7.216333, "distance_from_trend": 0.042219, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.962887, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.261302, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.00144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.043279, "excess_performance": -0.039604, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042219, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046933, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.261302, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001457, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -1.4e-05, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121967, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043279, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.278291, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13134, "relative_activity": 0.489948, "balance": 0.278291, "dry_up": 0.70188, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020721, "annualized_volatility": 0.200007, "from_high_reference": -0.009874, "from_low_reference": 0.343036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.216333, "fair_value_reference": 5.962887, "structural_low": 6.366, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.019356, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.013417, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.121534, "worst_return": -0.157345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023865, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.032871, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.187736, "worst_return": -0.118807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.082473, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.059709, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.182161, "worst_return": -0.063866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.931137, "relative_strength": -1.961011, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.116052, "energy": 16.924457, "activity_lines": [ 7.2806, 7.297164, 7.259267, 7.214566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.486, "volume": 15035, "typical_volume": 32131.0, "trend": 7.158433, "fair_value": 5.940662, "relative_strength": 1.380781, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.898054, "energy": 31.369364, "activity_lines": [ 7.3336, 7.333491, 7.288257, 7.237718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.499, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 31441.65, "trend": 7.188767, "fair_value": 5.951746, "relative_strength": 1.222396, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.399994, "energy": 38.887083, "activity_lines": [ 7.393867, 7.367164, 7.316171, 7.25969 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.521, "volume": 13134, "typical_volume": 26806.95, "trend": 7.216333, "fair_value": 5.962887, "relative_strength": -0.00144, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.015772, "energy": 64.953385, "activity_lines": [ 7.450333, 7.400291, 7.342767, 7.281125 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }