{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed0f2210-2e63-4d87-bf14-67190f44dced", "symbol": "000793", "name": "Huawen Media Group", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.541, "architecture_energy": 79.277, "architecture_maturity": 31.074, "architecture_confidence": 83.375, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.93, "rotation_up": 9.7, "upward_expansion": 18.06, "deceleration": 37.14, "rotation_down": 77.5, "downward_expansion": 93.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.279333, 2.381455, 2.507619, 2.580903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.22, "trend_reference": 2.653667, "distance_from_trend": -0.163422, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.315769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041355, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.507185, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.186813, "excess_performance": -0.194213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.163422, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05865, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041355, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203496, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215072, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000158, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186813, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.735496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75070641, "relative_activity": 0.786304, "balance": 0.735496, "dry_up": 0.751214, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088011, "annualized_volatility": 0.377399, "from_high_reference": -0.356522, "from_low_reference": 0.037383 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.653667, "fair_value_reference": 2.315769, "structural_low": 2.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.010196, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.005753, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.306931, "worst_return": -0.240602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.007519, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.075333, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.314516, "worst_return": -0.074627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010049, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.128153, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.258065, "worst_return": -0.128514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -60.022813, "energy": 37.059633, "activity_lines": [ 2.552667, 2.581455, 2.654952, 2.689054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.43, "volume": 71380683, "typical_volume": 102456023.85, "trend": 2.714, "fair_value": 2.315449, "relative_strength": -12.245569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.40602, "energy": 54.539945, "activity_lines": [ 2.509333, 2.547636, 2.62781, 2.669742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.19, "volume": 75464993, "typical_volume": 96647577.1, "trend": 2.690667, "fair_value": 2.315833, "relative_strength": -20.731665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.541448, "energy": 71.696939, "activity_lines": [ 2.394667, 2.474727, 2.580524, 2.635935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.29, "volume": 64965911, "typical_volume": 94955568.75, "trend": 2.672333, "fair_value": 2.316538, "relative_strength": -15.367505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.71909, "energy": 75.436094, "activity_lines": [ 2.342667, 2.430727, 2.546048, 2.610086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.22, "volume": 75070641, "typical_volume": 95472823.3, "trend": 2.653667, "fair_value": 2.315769, "relative_strength": -21.507185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.540762, "energy": 79.276717, "activity_lines": [ 2.279333, 2.381455, 2.507619, 2.580903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }