{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed104bd4-365a-4d42-927f-6eb14178a9de", "symbol": "SID", "name": "Companhia Siderurgica Nacional ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.718, "architecture_energy": 47.568, "architecture_maturity": 91.012, "architecture_confidence": 80.773, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.86, "rotation_up": 25.61, "upward_expansion": 11.33, "deceleration": 60.5, "rotation_down": 48.63, "downward_expansion": 73.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.987873, 0.996122, 1.095718, 1.171731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.9287, "trend_reference": 1.316647, "distance_from_trend": -0.294648, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.890427, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.508735, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.093238, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.492514, "excess_performance": -0.618139, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.294648, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.508735, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201466, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.420932, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229677, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.492514, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.296296, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20500973, "relative_activity": 1.012891, "balance": 0.296296, "dry_up": 1.051394, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158162, "annualized_volatility": 0.623399, "from_high_reference": -0.577864, "from_low_reference": 0.060644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.316647, "fair_value_reference": 1.890427, "structural_low": 0.8756, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.018433, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.016333, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.467636, "worst_return": -0.304889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.040127, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.11002, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.453203, "worst_return": -0.28127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008089, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028191, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.423887, "worst_return": -0.234615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152047, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083916, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092105, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.171875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.79373, "energy": 88.51676, "activity_lines": [ 0.99944, 1.115302, 1.196627, 1.297509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.01, "volume": 7244019, "typical_volume": 22766273.6, "trend": 1.4078, "fair_value": 1.924175, "relative_strength": -37.71117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.710185, "energy": 83.16478, "activity_lines": [ 0.984507, 1.082502, 1.172179, 1.270124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.9911, "volume": 13766526, "typical_volume": 22555938.45, "trend": 1.386503, "fair_value": 1.915566, "relative_strength": -37.392022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.0611, "energy": 80.056043, "activity_lines": [ 0.974607, 1.051356, 1.149217, 1.24324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.08, "volume": 9529585, "typical_volume": 21503414.75, "trend": 1.368503, "fair_value": 1.90664, "relative_strength": -30.769476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.987513, "energy": 52.588925, "activity_lines": [ 1.0096, 1.043445, 1.138002, 1.223466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9856, "volume": 41324046, "typical_volume": 21285754.5, "trend": 1.34769, "fair_value": 1.898328, "relative_strength": -36.965426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.775948, "energy": 45.218381, "activity_lines": [ 1.009793, 1.021644, 1.119273, 1.198762 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9287, "volume": 20500973, "typical_volume": 20240061.2, "trend": 1.316647, "fair_value": 1.890427, "relative_strength": -42.093238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.718109, "energy": 47.567659, "activity_lines": [ 0.987873, 0.996122, 1.095718, 1.171731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }