{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed190546-3905-4da9-9ef0-b1a6d0c9c4b2", "symbol": "PRIMESECU", "name": "Prime Securities Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.349, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.056, "architecture_energy": 13.96, "architecture_maturity": 17.254, "architecture_confidence": 91.561, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.7, "rotation_up": 28.2, "upward_expansion": 41.5, "deceleration": 79.61, "rotation_down": 34.41, "downward_expansion": 35.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 283.923332, 285.878181, 286.04238, 284.506343 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 296.049988, "trend_reference": 282.261666, "distance_from_trend": 0.048849, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 243.945274, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.213592, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.435963, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045743, "excess_performance": 0.089453, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048849, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004087, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.213592, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02555, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05436, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005711, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045743, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.6809, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 268469, "relative_activity": 2.345811, "balance": 1.6809, "dry_up": 1.521967, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05854, "annualized_volatility": 0.226865, "from_high_reference": -0.089077, "from_low_reference": 0.210838 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 282.261666, "fair_value_reference": 243.945274, "structural_low": 261.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.014403, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.02159, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.115111, "worst_return": -0.08011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.049374, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.06669, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.34507, "worst_return": -0.086096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.097242, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.121917, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.88362, "worst_return": 0.043762, "sufficient": 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[ 289.126662, 289.500905, 286.478569, 284.372794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 281.600006, "volume": 140484, "typical_volume": 105312.35, "trend": 282.041667, "fair_value": 241.16542, "relative_strength": 1.445783, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.95315, "energy": 13.577366, "activity_lines": [ 285.913332, 288.346361, 286.307379, 284.332365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 274.450012, "volume": 222461, "typical_volume": 113094.2, "trend": 281.836667, "fair_value": 242.046227, "relative_strength": 1.242482, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.616108, "energy": 15.166093, "activity_lines": [ 280.853337, 285.967273, 285.430714, 283.84258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 278.0, "volume": 65319, "typical_volume": 113240.7, "trend": 281.925, "fair_value": 242.956451, "relative_strength": -0.073449, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.183829, "energy": 18.745448, "activity_lines": [ 278.673336, 284.254546, 284.892143, 283.595054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 296.049988, "volume": 268469, "typical_volume": 114446.15, "trend": 282.261666, "fair_value": 243.945274, "relative_strength": 5.435963, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.05638, "energy": 13.959625, "activity_lines": [ 283.923332, 285.878181, 286.04238, 284.506343 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }