{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed1f2168-203d-4cb0-bb44-628a66bc7c5a", "symbol": "JOET", "name": "VIRTUS ETF TRUST II VIRTUS TERRANOVA US QUALITY MOMENTUM ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.058, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.442, "architecture_energy": 53.654, "architecture_maturity": 55.914, "architecture_confidence": 69.899, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.38, "rotation_up": 52.59, "upward_expansion": 81.52, "deceleration": 66.83, "rotation_down": 27.03, "downward_expansion": 8.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.787333, 45.628545, 44.9003, 44.092827 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.61, "trend_reference": 43.303827, "distance_from_trend": 0.076348, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.239226, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251637, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.860563, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.085721, "excess_performance": -0.039904, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076348, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.251637, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04126, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028606, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044493, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085721, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.384635, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 96457, "relative_activity": 0.912813, "balance": 2.384635, "dry_up": 0.889637, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02423, "annualized_volatility": 0.126088, "from_high_reference": -0.009348, "from_low_reference": 0.201273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.303827, "fair_value_reference": 37.239226, "structural_low": 38.8005, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.011291, "positive_rate": 0.612903, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.003431, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.065681, "worst_return": -0.079791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.006242, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.010379, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.112385, "worst_return": -0.075801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.065963, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.033859, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.130173, "worst_return": -0.016495, "sufficient": true }, { 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44.570413, 43.437168, 43.033388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 45.74, "volume": 93369, "typical_volume": 108616.4, "trend": 42.787888, "fair_value": 36.685534, "relative_strength": -1.754661, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.956152, "energy": 81.267836, "activity_lines": [ 45.414, 44.871898, 43.726431, 43.231548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 45.94, "volume": 177521, "typical_volume": 110768.8, "trend": 42.909614, "fair_value": 36.798394, "relative_strength": -2.511075, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.389109, "energy": 81.576201, "activity_lines": [ 45.661333, 45.159649, 44.018646, 43.43491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.0, "volume": 87265, "typical_volume": 108561.15, "trend": 42.99636, "fair_value": 36.903213, "relative_strength": -2.847836, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.619596, "energy": 63.727883, "activity_lines": [ 45.484, 45.220433, 44.20648, 43.569774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.22, "volume": 81727, "typical_volume": 107068.85, "trend": 43.077827, "fair_value": 37.008654, "relative_strength": -1.652299, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.651276, "energy": 51.073847, "activity_lines": [ 45.384667, 45.290671, 44.404468, 43.713235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.54, "volume": 110583, "typical_volume": 105259.95, "trend": 43.188493, "fair_value": 37.120198, "relative_strength": -1.900321, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.964817, "energy": 48.033828, "activity_lines": [ 45.413333, 45.379091, 44.61398, 43.872085 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.61, "volume": 96457, "typical_volume": 105670.1, "trend": 43.303827, "fair_value": 37.239226, "relative_strength": -2.860563, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.442479, "energy": 53.653792, "activity_lines": [ 45.787333, 45.628545, 44.9003, 44.092827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }