{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed24c3fe-ad12-4946-b02d-9cba5a619459", "symbol": "ELMO", "name": "Elmos Semiconductor SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.818, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.797, "architecture_energy": 49.158, "architecture_maturity": 44.187, "architecture_confidence": 70.997, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.22, "rotation_up": 14.11, "upward_expansion": 26.81, "deceleration": 55.18, "rotation_down": 69.75, "downward_expansion": 45.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 153.946666, 161.650908, 169.043069, 165.209413 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 149.199997, "trend_reference": 155.391083, "distance_from_trend": -0.039842, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 99.92834, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.49307, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.196523, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.287919, "excess_performance": 0.113673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1841, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.49307, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.795391, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011965, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.697774, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.287919, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114, "relative_activity": 3.304348, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 1.23913, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08616, "annualized_volatility": 0.477254, "from_high_reference": -0.267985, "from_low_reference": 0.979329 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 155.391083, "fair_value_reference": 99.92834, "structural_low": 116.440848, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.129712, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.10479, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.129712, "worst_return": -0.129712, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 159.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 28.8, "trend": 152.274547, "fair_value": 98.880515, "relative_strength": 9.637411, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.596019, "energy": 17.22929, "activity_lines": [ 164.200002, 169.7065, 172.819792, 165.652607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 150.199997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 28.8, "trend": 153.99495, "fair_value": 99.415093, "relative_strength": 2.803724, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -14.805662, "energy": 29.166488, "activity_lines": [ 158.333334, 165.432727, 170.997085, 165.518765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 149.199997, "volume": 114, "typical_volume": 34.5, "trend": 155.391083, "fair_value": 99.92834, "relative_strength": -1.196523, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.797482, "energy": 49.157666, "activity_lines": [ 153.946666, 161.650908, 169.043069, 165.209413 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }