{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed25e446-4d6e-4011-91ab-ec9cd9a93a00", "symbol": "TRU", "name": "TruCap Finance Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.964, "architecture_energy": 85.806, "architecture_maturity": 99.501, "architecture_confidence": 84.203, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.48, "rotation_up": 9.67, "upward_expansion": 19.87, "deceleration": 37.23, "rotation_down": 82.84, "downward_expansion": 97.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.744667, 5.023091, 5.407048, 5.636258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.55, "trend_reference": 6.016667, "distance_from_trend": -0.243767, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.252984, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.849602, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.722418, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.378415, "excess_performance": -0.334706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.243767, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157644, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.849602, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036798, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.397224, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062619, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.378415, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.069131, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 532446, "relative_activity": 1.026708, "balance": 0.069131, "dry_up": 1.381707, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10279, "annualized_volatility": 0.497467, "from_high_reference": -0.670767, "from_low_reference": 0.020179 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.016667, "fair_value_reference": 30.252984, "structural_low": 4.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.104193, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.104178, "regime_survival": 0.958333, "best_return": 0.538713, "worst_return": -0.327716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.273309, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.332076, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 1.511111, "worst_return": -0.507914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.45046, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.485761, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.379167, "worst_return": -0.741007, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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5.809095, 6.033677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.0, "volume": 652129, "typical_volume": 532207.05, "trend": 6.351333, "fair_value": 31.186353, "relative_strength": -38.028003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.646998, "energy": 70.080834, "activity_lines": [ 5.306, 5.467455, 5.719667, 5.939226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.88, "volume": 706431, "typical_volume": 535756.2, "trend": 6.250333, "fair_value": 30.891164, "relative_strength": -36.406438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.078964, "energy": 73.41228, "activity_lines": [ 5.13, 5.331818, 5.626762, 5.844301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.6, "volume": 975182, "typical_volume": 523421.0, "trend": 6.124333, "fair_value": 30.586171, "relative_strength": -39.956075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.086442, "energy": 83.207637, "activity_lines": [ 4.92, 5.168364, 5.515571, 5.737828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.55, "volume": 532446, "typical_volume": 518595.5, "trend": 6.016667, "fair_value": 30.252984, "relative_strength": -39.722418, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.964436, "energy": 85.805897, "activity_lines": [ 4.744667, 5.023091, 5.407048, 5.636258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }