{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed39b19d-65ea-4207-8eef-563b8fec3a89", "symbol": "AKRBP", "name": "Aker BP ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.11, "architecture_energy": 29.214, "architecture_maturity": 32.127, "architecture_confidence": 60.292, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.73, "rotation_up": 57.17, "upward_expansion": 64.82, "deceleration": 67.19, "rotation_down": 12.63, "downward_expansion": 12.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 330.373383, 322.603782, 326.988127, 324.848106 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 330.100006, "trend_reference": 315.191634, "distance_from_trend": 0.047299, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 238.4812, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.384176, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.869844, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.284255, "excess_performance": 0.159261, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047299, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09116, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.384176, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055375, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048698, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058546, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.284255, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.870475, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3961812, "relative_activity": 0.767243, "balance": 1.870475, "dry_up": 0.927903, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059596, "annualized_volatility": 0.362228, "from_high_reference": -0.100726, "from_low_reference": 0.464777 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 315.191634, "fair_value_reference": 238.4812, "structural_low": 250.128255, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.012153, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.005712, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.169617, "worst_return": -0.133592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.079805, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.086909, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.326624, "worst_return": -0.075118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.170791, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.074274, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.223854, "worst_return": -0.091006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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322.644804, 328.149353, 318.698161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 302.452454, "volume": 5132268, "typical_volume": 6845209.9, "trend": 303.532982, "fair_value": 235.452055, "relative_strength": 1.905094, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.283315, "energy": 29.300554, "activity_lines": [ 303.901235, 317.455731, 325.996956, 318.763052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 321.374115, "volume": 5937233, "typical_volume": 6845321.0, "trend": 306.397164, "fair_value": 236.166269, "relative_strength": 6.615329, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.115223, "energy": 29.101111, "activity_lines": [ 307.681236, 316.646218, 325.524599, 319.914093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 340.5, "volume": 5050771, "typical_volume": 6328870.7, "trend": 309.742165, "fair_value": 236.994276, "relative_strength": 9.769809, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.490646, "energy": 14.229747, "activity_lines": [ 319.304924, 319.430859, 326.681737, 322.114276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 334.600006, "volume": 4215825, "typical_volume": 5900128.85, "trend": 312.583476, "fair_value": 237.768311, "relative_strength": 7.008731, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.004593, "energy": 21.792749, "activity_lines": [ 326.837209, 321.271866, 327.100495, 323.718007 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 330.100006, "volume": 3961812, "typical_volume": 5163697.2, "trend": 315.191634, "fair_value": 238.4812, "relative_strength": 4.869844, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.110048, "energy": 29.214367, "activity_lines": [ 330.373383, 322.603782, 326.988127, 324.848106 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }