{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ed436ada-2871-4165-a59f-d27a58c6145e",
    "symbol": "QDEC",
    "name": "FT VEST NASDAQ-100 BUFFER ETF - DECEMBER",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 60.742,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 74.962,
    "architecture_energy": 49.839,
    "architecture_maturity": 53.804,
    "architecture_confidence": 45.893,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 31.02,
        "rotation_up": 42.69,
        "upward_expansion": 71.94,
        "deceleration": 73.79,
        "rotation_down": 29.15,
        "downward_expansion": 12.27
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        35.411667,
        35.353636,
        35.14788,
        34.548506
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 35.98,
    "trend_reference": 33.82841,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.063603,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 28.159763,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27771,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.126134,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.108783,
    "excess_performance": -0.016842,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063603,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03269,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.27771,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.020548,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021261,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022808,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.108783,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.572584,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 63733,
      "relative_activity": 0.447361,
      "balance": 0.572584,
      "dry_up": 0.913306,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.016832,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.104843,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.309316
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 33.82841,
      "fair_value_reference": 28.159763,
      "structural_low": 30.5131,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.020219,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00753,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.073313,
        "worst_return": -0.028139,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.077035,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.024605,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.091142,
        "worst_return": 0.05004,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.098444,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.048007,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.098444,
        "worst_return": 0.098444,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.075194,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.02194,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.075194,
        "worst_return": 0.075194,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-03-17",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.189458,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.032366,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.005896,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.033026,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.043178,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.026533,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.099443,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.048543,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.092548,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.04668,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030609,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012416,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.012469,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.023322,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 373356.6,
        "trend": 32.11827,
        "fair_value": 26.891136,
        "relative_strength": 0.591426,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "relative_strength": 0.501536,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "direction": 77.571004,
        "energy": 90.988909,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 199951.45,
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        "fair_value": 27.413323,
        "relative_strength": -0.027569,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 194545.55,
        "trend": 33.003913,
        "fair_value": 27.497041,
        "relative_strength": 0.138926,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": 0.084859,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 187434.65,
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        "fair_value": 27.664765,
        "relative_strength": 1.14588,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.053667,
        "energy": 57.053787,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 35.26,
        "volume": 71180,
        "typical_volume": 179481.3,
        "trend": 33.363213,
        "fair_value": 27.747809,
        "relative_strength": -0.548501,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 35.665,
        "volume": 52270,
        "typical_volume": 169472.45,
        "trend": 33.479047,
        "fair_value": 27.832136,
        "relative_strength": -0.744962,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.918133,
        "energy": 61.634878,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.408,
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          34.111413
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 35.15,
        "volume": 56540,
        "typical_volume": 147331.4,
        "trend": 33.56538,
        "fair_value": 27.913162,
        "relative_strength": -0.623836,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.099304,
        "energy": 52.492454,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.332,
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          34.82381,
          34.219216
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 34.89,
        "volume": 210510,
        "typical_volume": 150505.65,
        "trend": 33.63538,
        "fair_value": 27.99159,
        "relative_strength": -0.770078,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.413842,
        "energy": 42.476962,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.178,
          35.249455,
          34.902897,
          34.304676
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 35.16,
        "volume": 189671,
        "typical_volume": 152490.35,
        "trend": 33.725243,
        "fair_value": 28.073128,
        "relative_strength": -1.054726,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.014833,
        "energy": 37.207121,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.16,
          35.225636,
          34.994174,
          34.403038
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 35.98,
        "volume": 63733,
        "typical_volume": 142464.3,
        "trend": 33.82841,
        "fair_value": 28.159763,
        "relative_strength": -2.126134,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.962148,
        "energy": 49.83862,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.411667,
          35.353636,
          35.14788,
          34.548506
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}