{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed46dd2d-ef94-48c0-94c3-f8cd1d339a74", "symbol": "ALERO", "name": "Euroland Corporate Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.666, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.279, "architecture_energy": 33.738, "architecture_maturity": 6.329, "architecture_confidence": 44.878, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.83, "rotation_up": 51.32, "upward_expansion": 50.77, "deceleration": 32.02, "rotation_down": 21.1, "downward_expansion": 13.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.1, 3.070762, 3.004957, 3.002913 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.1, "trend_reference": 3.012312, "distance_from_trend": 0.02911, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.648661, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170403, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.566813, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.00641, "excess_performance": -0.059722, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02911, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012916, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170403, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066592, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039843, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00641, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.28, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 781, "relative_activity": 2.298073, "balance": 1.28, "dry_up": 2.309107, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050419, "annualized_volatility": 0.239937, "from_high_reference": -0.060606, "from_low_reference": 0.19347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.012312, "fair_value_reference": 2.648661, "structural_low": 2.597468, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.085821, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.095134, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.171642, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.097774, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.064297, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.063604, "worst_return": -0.131945, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.133421, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.102094, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.079342, "worst_return": -0.1875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.149422, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077519, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014184, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.193681, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.019355, 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2.875815, 2.883835, 2.948373, 2.992227 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 2.886076, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 263.9, "trend": 3.03816, "fair_value": 2.616527, "relative_strength": -10.486757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.602906, "energy": 22.683131, "activity_lines": [ 2.879663, 2.87769, 2.937434, 2.981998 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 2.905317, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 242.55, "trend": 3.032338, "fair_value": 2.618901, "relative_strength": -10.252257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.592939, "energy": 21.423682, "activity_lines": [ 2.888642, 2.878932, 2.929536, 2.973428 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 3.059241, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 236.75, "trend": 3.028979, "fair_value": 2.622034, "relative_strength": -4.795299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.60496, "energy": 20.07519, "activity_lines": [ 3.03892, 2.990937, 2.962044, 2.981555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.14, "volume": 1749, "typical_volume": 345.9, "trend": 3.016312, "fair_value": 2.639329, "relative_strength": -1.095323, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.636033, "energy": 29.886742, "activity_lines": [ 3.075949, 3.024819, 2.977999, 2.989448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.14, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 344.35, "trend": 3.014979, "fair_value": 2.644123, "relative_strength": -2.353505, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.32012, "energy": 32.925389, "activity_lines": [ 3.097333, 3.053735, 2.993573, 2.997428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.1, "volume": 781, "typical_volume": 339.85, "trend": 3.012312, "fair_value": 2.648661, "relative_strength": -5.566813, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.278722, "energy": 33.73757, "activity_lines": [ 3.1, 3.070762, 3.004957, 3.002913 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }