{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ed49add5-ec24-457b-9d70-caec0310b4cf", "symbol": "GREK", "name": "GLOBAL X FDS GLOBAL X MSCI GREECE ETF (POST REV SPLT)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.711, "architecture_energy": 74.089, "architecture_maturity": 29.061, "architecture_confidence": 84.416, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.91, "rotation_up": 72.1, "upward_expansion": 90.85, "deceleration": 45.05, "rotation_down": 15.37, "downward_expansion": 15.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.210307, 77.71265, 75.306398, 73.433459 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 81.79, "trend_reference": 71.85525, "distance_from_trend": 0.138261, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.451525, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.653943, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.571184, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.088067, "excess_performance": -0.037558, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.138261, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0551, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.653943, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102049, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.065712, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070473, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088067, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.512707, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 341547, "relative_activity": 0.670929, "balance": 1.512707, "dry_up": 1.203539, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0429, "annualized_volatility": 0.273686, "from_high_reference": -0.018481, "from_low_reference": 0.352005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.85525, "fair_value_reference": 49.451525, "structural_low": 60.53, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.025224, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.002297, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.153173, "worst_return": -0.168087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.026243, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.003398, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.27957, "worst_return": -0.145585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058439, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.026408, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.554437, "worst_return": -0.144086, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.369948, "energy": 48.581648, "activity_lines": [ 75.762291, 75.012271, 72.8886, 71.749601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 77.2, "volume": 568293, "typical_volume": 558069.2, "trend": 71.002737, "fair_value": 48.85414, "relative_strength": 5.589626, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.768669, "energy": 54.13222, "activity_lines": [ 76.225848, 75.600897, 73.518231, 72.170942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.21, "volume": 645693, "typical_volume": 527835.8, "trend": 71.42825, "fair_value": 49.145017, "relative_strength": 8.279794, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.085392, "energy": 64.592078, "activity_lines": [ 77.654793, 76.605692, 74.377148, 72.764959 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.79, "volume": 341547, "typical_volume": 509066.15, "trend": 71.85525, "fair_value": 49.451525, "relative_strength": 6.571184, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.711271, "energy": 74.088855, "activity_lines": [ 79.210307, 77.71265, 75.306398, 73.433459 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }